Sunday, March 30, 2008

Chapter 75.2: Are You Ready for Some Baseball?!


It’s that time again. Baseball season!

There are several enticing stories surrounding this season, not the least of which is that it’s the one hundredth anniversary of the last time the Chicago Cubs have won the World Series. My White Sox fan friends in Chicago notwithstanding, I think most baseball people would be pleasantly surprised to see them at least make the Series if not actually win it. Personally, I believe they lost their chance in 2003 – though I don’t blame Bartman, I blame their pitching and inept fielding.

Anyway, I open this season as I’ve opened each season since I started this blog: My annual predictions. Since it takes too long to actually report on every single team, I’m going to give more general statements.

NL East: As usual, I hesitate to predict the Mets will take the division because – as they proved last year – it’s always within their capacity to screw things up and steal defeat from the jaws of victory. That said, I believe the Mets pitching staff is much better than it was last year. Johan Santana is quite possibly the best pitcher in the game today, and by placing him the admittedly weaker National League, he should be able to dominate. I’m looking for an excellent season and the first Met Cy Young Award winner in more than twenty years (Dwight Gooden, 1985). Mets to take the division. Their competition will be Atlanta and Philadelphia. I have no faith in Washington or Florida.

NL Central: This division will be fun to watch. It’ll be either Chicago or Milwaukee, both of which are fun to watch. I can’t trust Milwaukee’s pitching however. Even their ace, Ben Sheets, is a risk given his injury history, though Jeff Suppan is usually steady. After them, their current staff is Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra – not exactly John Maine, Oliver Perez, and El Duque. Plus their bullpen has more questions than a four-year old. They can hit, and it should be fun to watch Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun lead their offense. The Cubs have a better pitching staff going in: Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are fairly solid. Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster, and Jon Lieber seem like the likely other starters if Rich Hill isn’t able to hold onto his spot in the rotation.

The other possibility in this division are the Reds, though I honestly don’t expect them to do much of anything. The rest of the division has become pretty much a joke. It’s hard to believe that the Astros were in the 2005 World Series and the Cardinals won it all in 2006. Like most teams these days, they don’t have enough pitching. Pittsburgh doesn’t count. Cubs to take the division.

NL West: This division is a crap shoot because there are several teams with enough talent to win. The worst of the west, the Giants, actually have pretty decent pitching – and if Barry Zito can return to his old Cy Young form, they may actually be able to find enough offense to contend. But I doubt it. Coming from the West are the NL Champion Colorado Rockies as well as the resurgent Dodgers, the much improved Diamondbacks, and last year’s second worst chokers, the Padres – all of which have the ability to sneak out with at least the Wild Card. I think we’re going to see the baby snakes prove themselves. Diamondbacks to take the division, Rockies take the Wild Card.

AL East: This remains a Red Sox and Yankees division, but the Blue Jays are ready to surprise people. Their pitching staff sports former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay as well as Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett. Their bullpen is a little sketchy, but should be ok, especially if BJ Ryan returns with anywhere near his past accomplishments. Both the Yankees and Red Sox remain quite well stocked, however, so anything less than second place for either must be viewed as a terrible failure. The Rays (formerly from hell, but now simply hailing from Tampa) have greatly improved but won’t reach 75 wins. Baltimore will probably find themselves in the basement of the division. Red Sox take the division.

AL Central: The Tigers are scary! They have pitching, they have "mad offense," and they have one of the game’s best managers. I expect great things from them. The Indians will be strong again as well, though I would be impressed if C.C. Sabathia can retain his Cy Young form in his walk year and especially if Fausto Carmona can match his accomplishments from last year. The White Sox should be improved, and if the Royals can pitch at all, they may surprise people; they’ve got some great young hitters like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, who had a strong second half last year after an awful beginning. I don’t think the Twins can compete with these guys, though they always play hard and have lots of talent still. Tigers take the division, Indians win Wild Card.

AL West: Like its NL cousin, I expect this division to be fairly tight most of the season. But I don’t think it’ll be for the same reasons. The Angels could have run away with the division, but they’re already struggling with their pitching, which has been hit by injuries. John Lackey – out. Kelvim Escobar – out, possibly for the full season. Jon Garland is toward the top of the rotation now. He should be stronger than he was in hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago, but he’s got to prove himself again. The Mariners have replenished their rotation with young stud Erik Bedard, who along with Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and newcomer Carlos Silva should make the Mariners the biggest unexpected surprise of the year. The Angels could still squeak it out if they get their pitching back, but I’m going to go out on a limb. Mariners take the division.

I’ll update these predictions after I’m proven wrong. But with these eight teams, I’m making the following predictions. NL playoffs: Mets defeat Rockies, Diamondbacks defeat Cubs. Mets defeat Diamondbacks. AL playoffs, Tigers defeat Mariners, Red Sox defeat Indians. Tigers defeat Red Sox. Tigers beat Mets in World Series.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Chapter 75.1: All Right, Already!


I swear, ever since my birthday I've had odd little reminders that it's time for me to seriously pursue my intended career writing fiction. There's the aforementioned receipt of an Irish-American encyclopedia that includes three pieces I wrote. Then there were other reminders that popped up about an editor I've worked with in the past and a profile subject who contacted me about her upcoming book signing.

The writer, who I'll interview this weekend, writes historical fiction set during the American Revolution. I've interviewed her before and she's been a wonderful resource for marketing materials that I might use as a template for my own novels. More importantly, she loves the era she writes about and there's nothing better than interviewing people who really has a passion for what they do.

Then I ended up sitting on the train next to a lawyer who's written a novel and is working on his second and is also shopping a screenplay that he wrote with his brother. He and I chatted a bit about finding agents [he has one that he found via a client], our mutual love of writing and our particular ways of writing -- he compiles entire folders, like case briefs, of characters, for example -- as his client [who looked guilty to me] listened inattentively.

But my point is that I feel like there's been an element of divine intervention involved in the scant days since my birthday: a reminder that the window of opportunity for my becoming a published novelist of not just one but several books is starting to close. Intuitively, I know that it doesn't happen without my putting the time in. I've written the book. People have read it, enjoyed it, and suggested ways to make it better. I've made lots of edits to improve it. It's almost ready. But I need to start shopping it around. Soon.

I'm reminded of that joke about the guy who's drowning and several boats come by and offer help, but the guy keeps saying: "No, God will save me." I think I've gotten the message.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Chapter 75: A Decade of Publishing?


While I was home yesterday, enjoying a planned, post-birthday day off, an unexpected package arrived. I didn't recognize the sender, which was based in Michigan, and I assumed it was a birthday gift that someone had neglected to mention.

But when I opened the box, I realized that this was something different -- albeit not at all inappropriate for the time. Inside, tucked within poppable blister wrap, was Ireland and the Americas, the three-volume encyclopedia of all things Irish-American. Aside from arriving the day after St. Patrick's Day, why is this significant? Because three of the entries were written by me!

While it often takes years between a finished draft and actual publication of a novel, that is certainly the case with encyclopedias, which need to be fact-checked and carefully scrutinized. After all, they'll sit on library shelves for decades. I wrote these entries at least three years ago -- it may have even been in late 2004.

I was originally asked to write about the Irish-American influence on baseball. For those who aren't aware, Irish Americans (and several American Irish) were the first superstars of baseball. Michael "King" Kelly was once the wealthiest player in the game (making less than what many of today's superstars make per inning), and there was a reason why it was Mighty Casey who was playing for Mudville in Ernest Thayer's famous poem. It's the same reason "Flynn preceded Casey, as did also Jimmy Blake." These guys were Irish.

Alas, Mighty Casey eventually struck out, but not before the Irish Americans started to dominate the managerial ranks. I wrote another entry about Irish-American managers, and one about Ned Hanlon. Hanlon was both a successful manager and credited with several innovations that fans take for granted today. I offered to write about Hanlon's proteges, John McGraw and Connie Mack, but they were already written.

But back to my original point, this has been a wonderful week already. I've marked another decade of life with a newly published work, and before the next ten years are out I hopefully will have a couple novels published. And soon the 2008 baseball season will begin. I can hardly wait!

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Chapter 74.95: The Other Woman (One of Many)

The New York Times has exposed the woman who helped bring down Governor Spitzer. Not that she did it; Spitzer hung himself in this affair. He got what he deserved.

In this crazy world, the young, attractive brunette will probably get her big chance at musical stardom, which she claims on her MySpace page is her goal. The Times describes her music, which starts automatically when you get to her page, as "an amateurish, hip-hop inflected rhythm and blues tune," but she didn't make any outrageous comments in her interview with the Times. If she can be packaged properly, she can probably cut a record ... and then who knows? America loves a Cinderella story.

We've heard the last of Eliot Spitzer in politics for quite some time, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this is not the last we hear of Jersey girl Ashley Alexandra Dupre.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Chapter 73.9: Number Nine... Number Nine


What a frigging idiot! What in God's name was he thinking? Does this man have a death wish? His career is over.

I've heard all these things today -- and even said a couple of them myself -- about Gov. Eliot Spitzer, aka Client Number Nine.

And I also said that if these allegations are true, then he must resign. But the more I thought of it, the more I wondered whether he might actually be able to survive. He might even be able to win re-election. Do I expect it? No. But stranger things have happened.

But let's look at this possibility. He's got three years left in his term. He wasn't running the prostitution ring, and lots of people will say "Hey, he's remorseful, and he's only doing what men do." We've heard all this crap before too. I'm no political operative, but if I were, I'd have assessed whether the current crisis will completely undermine the governor's platform and support structure before deciding whether to recommend that he resign. In short, what political damage will this cause. Can it be surmounted. What will it cost to his credibility and ability to govern.

Frankly, I think the answer is that his credibility is in shreds. But I have read many of the posts on the New York Times blogs, and I found several people who said this shouldn't cause him to resign. Most said it should, but I was surprised at how many said he should remain.

See, the problem is that if he's guilty of soliciting a prostitute, then he committed a crime, and by allegedly doing it across state lines he would be possibly guilty of a federal crime. Plus, the presidential election could play a factor. How much would Spitzer's continued presence in the state house hurt the Democrats? In New York, probably not too much, but I'll let more educated heads prevail on that one.

Ultimately, Gov. Spitzer's biggest problem isn't an ethical one, it's a political one. Say what you will about his allegedly cheating on his wife (the term is "adultery") and subjecting his daughters to being ridiculed by their classmates (the term is "asshole"), his biggest challenge will be determining whether he can stay in office, not whether he should.

Indeed, if he were to stay, it would bring about a shift in power -- at least temporarily. To counter any calls for impeachment, I believe it would be Sheldon Silver, the leader of the state assembly, who could sway things.

I don't know how the government of New York is set up, but if it's like the federal congressional system, the Assembly would have to determine whether to bring articles of impeachment; Democrats run the Assembly right now. If they were to do it, Republicans currently lead the state Senate, where an impeachment trial would be conducted and heard. There is no way an impeachment trial could be conducted before the November elections. So if Democrats take the state Senate, then perhaps Spitzer can survive -- albeit, having conceded a lot to people like Silver and other ranking Democrats. If the Republicans retained the state senate, then perhaps Spitzer would fall on his sword like Donald Rumsfeld did after the Democrats retook Congress in 2006.

Personally, I think this governor is done. But if there's one thing I've noticed about Eliot Spitzer over the past several years, it's that he likes to fight. I don't think he's going quietly.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Chapter 73.5: Winter Forward?


It's not quite the same, changing daylight savings time in early March. I don't mind getting up one hour earlier on a Sunday, even though I had to get up particularly early today. But since the nasty storm caused blackouts throughout much of northern New Jersey, I went to bed early anyway.

But is it really necessary to make the change in early March? What brought this on? Why not do this at the end of March, or return it to early April. I believe Europe does it at the end of March; what's our rationale for doing it on the second weekend of March? If memory serves, the reason it was moved was because it saved more energy, but I also remember reading that another study said this isn't necessarily so. Are there any truly definitive studies on this matter? I'm all for conserving energy and saving money, but is this really safer?

Anybody else care to venture an opinion

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Chapter 73.4: From the Earth to the Moon... and Then Some

Perhaps the image above impresses me because I'm a bit of a space geek, but I think this is an amazing shot. In case it's not obvious, this is a picture of the earth and the moon. What's less obvious is where the photo's taken from: Mars.

The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter took this image last fall. It's hard to make out, but the land at the lower half of the earth is South America.

Cool!

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Chapter 73.2: In Like a Drunkard


March has arrived. The old saying is that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb (I believe I have that right). Well, today, these lions are heading up to Hoboken for a little R&R.

These days, we don't spend much time in the town where we lived for many years. The demands of life in suburbia -- such as running a company, paying a mortgage and mowing a lawn or shoveling a driveway -- take up too much of our time. But it'll be nice to meet up with old friends that we haven't seen in too long. Appropriately enough, we're heading to Carpe Diem.

More to report, perhaps, later. After we've seized the day.