Chapter 80.7: President-Elect Obama

All right! You don't have to be a math whiz to see the blue ink on the wall. With Ohio now declared for Sen. Barack Obama, Pennsylvania unsurprisingly going Democratic, and Florida looking ready to go Democratic too, it's time to stick a fork in Sen. John McCain's campaign. It's done.

There's a party in Grant Park in Chicago, and I think there will be celebration throughout much of the United States. Barack Obama is on the verge of history!

President-Elect Obama will have a lot of work ahead of him, and there remains much to learn about the House and Senate races as the night goes on, but short of an unspeakable catastrophe, he has accomplished what many African-Americans never thought possible in their lifetimes.

This may sound silly to some, but I'm proud of America. We're still a nation with deep racial divisions, but at least it can be said now that we have elected a black man president. There's never been a black prime minister of England or a black president of France. Don't even think about Germany in this equation. I don't know for certain, but I'd be shocked if there's been an Aboriginal PM of Australia.

This truly is history. I'm proud to have witnessed it and to be part of this historic vote.

Chapter 80.3: Interesting Endorsements

There have been some interesting newspaper endorsements and interesting op-eds as well lately. Earlier this week, the New York Times offered its endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama for president. That in itself is hardly a surprise; as the Times' sidebar demonstrates, the paper hasn't endorsed a Republican for president since Dwight D. Eisenhower. But what surprised me was how it essentially stated that McCain's campaign had virtually negated the decades of good work he had accomplished in Congress. As the editorial board wrote: "Senator John McCain of Arizona has retreated farther and farther to the fringe of American politics, running a campaign on partisan division, class warfare and even hints of racism. His policies and worldview are mired in the past. His choice of a running mate so evidently unfit for the office was a final act of opportunism and bad judgment that eclipsed the accomplishments of 26 years in Congress.

"Mr. McCain offers more of the Republican every-man-for-himself ideology, now lying in shards on Wall Street and in Americans’ bank accounts. Mr. Obama has another vision of government’s role and responsibilities."

While I would never disrespect the service Sen. McCain has given to this country, both in the Navy and in Congress, I suspect McCain has allowed his campaign to be over-run with the conservatives who helped President Bush get elected twice to the highest office in our country.

I don't believe all Republicans are like Bush or even like McCain, who I suspect is conservative but also has many of the qualities that made the Republican party strong since the days of Abraham Lincoln. But NY Times columnist David Brooks, in his op-ed, offered a qualified endorsement of McCain: "McCain would be an outstanding president. In government, he has almost always had an instinct for the right cause. He has become an experienced legislative craftsman. He is stalwart against the country’s foes and cooperative with its friends. But he never escaped the straitjacket of a party that is ailing and a conservatism that is behind the times. And that’s what makes the final weeks of this campaign so unspeakably sad."

I find it hard to disagree with Brooks. As someone who tends to vote Democratic, the only Republican candidate I thought could defeat a Democrat this year was McCain.

But there have been other interesting endorsements recently. For the first time ever, the Chicago Tribune endorsed a Democrat. This is a publication that chose Eisenhower over Illinois' own Adlai E. Stevenson — twice. So its endorsement of Obama isn't about him being a favorite son of Illinois.

The endorsement that really caught my eye, however, was the Anchorage Daily News. That's the largest circulation newspaper in Alaska, best known these days as the home state of Tina Fey impersonator Gov. Sarah Palin. They, too, have endorsed Obama. The Daily News's editorial board wrote: "Gov. Palin's nomination clearly alters the landscape for Alaskans as we survey this race for the presidency — but it does not overwhelm all other judgment. The election, after all is said and down, is not about Sarah Palin, and our sober view is that her running mate, Sen. John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation." It added: "Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time."

Of course, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who served in that role during George W. Bush's first term as president, also provided a stunning endorsement of Sen. Obama. And lately the wheels seem to be falling off for the McCain campaign.

Personally, I think all these endorsements have one thing in common other than the person they selected; they all suggest — in between the lines if not directly — that the Republican party is due for a major reassessment of who and what it represents. The party is splitting. (Added on 10/27: I found the final line of this brilliant piece of fiction quite illuminating.) Moderates and conservatives have less in common than they once did. If Sarah Palin is a serious candidate for president in 2012, I think it will be an indication that the party is still reeling and trying to find its unifying message.

But first things first. There are less than 10 days before the election. I'm excited for the future, because I believe Barack Obama can change our country's direction to a positive route.

Chapter 80.1: Wet October Surprise?

Perhaps I should have taken our leaky pipe in the basement as a sign. The 2008 presidential campaign seems to have had its October surprise burble up finally. This time it came up through the pipes in Toledo, Ohio, one of the swingingest states in America.

The gist of it is a guy now known for the rest of his 15 minutes as Joe the Plumber asked Sen. Obama about how his plan to tax only those making at least $250,000 will affect Joe's chances of having a successful plumbing business. (Almost uncommented upon has been that Joe isn't a licensed plumber, which apparently is required in Toledo.)

By clogging up the debate with plumber references, Sen. McCain seems to have re-engaged his campaign with at least some of the voting populace. Whether it will be enough to actually sway what few undecideds are out there or reconvert those Republicans who had given up on McCain remains to be seen.

But if you have your Joe the Plumber t-shirts already, I advise you get ready to sell them, because after early November, regardless of who wins, they'll probably be going cheap.

Chapter 79.3: Mind Boggling Collapse

We are living through an incredible moment. The utter collapse of U.S. financial markets is like something out of a futuristic tale of apocalypse, except it's happening now, in real time, with real damage.

The Bush administration probably will go down as the worst in U.S. history because of the myriad debacles — financial, military, political, legal — that occurred on its watch. To be sure, not everything has been President Bush's fault; too much has happened to blame it all on one person. But then again, not everything was Herbert Hoover's fault either. That doesn't mean we have warm, fuzzy feelings for him or his term in office.

Looking back at Hoover's Wikipedia entry, I'm a little concerned that he was also considered a progressive and a reformer. In this election, we have a purported progressive (Obama) and reformer (McCain) and the election is looking razor thin. (What is it about extremely close elections in this century?)

To a financial know-nothing like myself (just because I can do math doesn't mean I'm up on economic theory), it appears that the rich were trying to get richer on risky investments and when many of those investments failed, they weren't able to make good on their outlay of cash. They were over-extended. Much like the American populace.

Let's face it, this world lives on credit. It's not just in America — all over the world. Hell, I think they extend credit on Antarctica! And if a bank were to say, "I know we gave you a 30-year fixed mortgage, but we need our money now," (which probably isn't legal, so I'm not too worried about it happening to me) there's no way I could pay it without having to borrow money from someone else for less favorable terms. I think that's, in a sense, what has been happening on Wall Street.

This could well be the beginning of our Great Depression. If, as some speculate, we are experiencing the end of the "American empire," then we should probably pay close attention to what's going on. Our next major decisions — like who we choose to be president for the next four years — are exceedingly important for today and for our children tomorrow.

Chapter 78.7: Obama-Biden, My First Impressions

I heard the news today, Oh boy! About a lucky man who made the grade.

With apologies to the Beatles and with recognition that I'm alluding to a lyrical car crash — which is not what I mean to connote — I will say that I'm happy about Obama's selection of Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) as his vice presidential candidate – and with the secrecy in which he made it.

I think it was more than a year ago now that I interviewed a woman who was then newly installed as chief of staff for a Congressman. We had an off the record conversation toward the end when I asked her who she liked in the 2008 presidential race. It might have been early 2007, or perhaps even earlier. "I'm not sure why yet, but I like Joe Biden," she said.

Sen. Biden isn't perfect. Though he's clearly a bright man, he's prone to make stupid comments that can be interpreted in a way other than how he intended. He'll have to temper his sense of humor. While he's a Catholic, he's voted pro-choice; that'll be an issue for many Catholics. I for one do not vote for a president based on a person's opinions on this clearly important issue. But it will likely embarass the campaign when a priest chooses not to serve him communion, just as it did with John Kerry.

But Biden's strength is his familiarity with foreign leader and his experience as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee. I'd been thinking that if he weren't selected for the vice presidency, he'd make a good Secretary of Defense. But I'm pleased with where he is.

The question to be asked of any vice president is whether he can handle the job of president. While no one wants to talk about it much, that is a matter of utmost concern for this ticket, because there are too many wackos out there who won't like the idea of an African-American president. I believe Biden could step in and do the job, though I hope Obama has a strong first term in the office. We're going to need steady hands atop our government for the next several years.

Let the love-fest begin!

I'm sure Sen. McCain also will select a capable partner (though I really don't think it'll be Mitt Romney, regardless of the possibility that it would swing Michigan his way). And this will be an election for the ages. Personally, I have great hopes for a President Obama. I think he'll be a strong leader and decades from now people will look at Sen. McCain as an unfortunate leader who went up against a tidal wave. (Too bad McCain wasn't elected in 2000, they'll say, but that's a discussion for a different time.)

It will be a difficult couple of months ahead, but I'm happy to be pleased with the Democratic ticket. It's been a long time since I felt this good about a presidential team.

Chapter 78.1: Middle of the Road

It has begun, as I believed it would. The political parties — or at least the media — in the United States are seeing a shift, not merely away from Republicans but also toward the center. In short, the number of independents is increasing.

Indeed, in the New York Times story I've linked to above is this very interesting paragraph: "Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party." (My emphasis)

I've argued with friends who enjoy political debates that the Republican party will undergo a significant shift as moderates wedge themselves away from conservatives. But the Democratic party has seen a shift as well as more centrist Democrats (I count myself as one) find themselves less comfortable with the more left-leaning liberals. To my eyes, that will be the deepest chasm that emerges if there is an Obama administration — especially since it's highly likely to be accompanied by a Democratic majority in both bodies of Congress.

I'll leave it at that for now, but this is a topic I'll return to.

Chapter 72.5: Is Inspiration Enough?

I wasn't alive during the time of John F. Kennedy, and during brother Robert's tragically short campaign I was too young to understand anything that didn't mean "food." So I don't know exactly what it's like to have lived while a politician was able to inspire us. The closest thing to an inspirational leader was the fictional Jed Bartlet during the West Wing years, and even that wasn't really inspirational.

So I read George Packer's story in the New Yorker with great interest. So too, Paul Krugman's essay on the lasting effect of John Edwards on the campaign.

Packer outlined differences between Sens. Obama and Clinton and their presumed approaches to the presidency. Obama would be an 'Inspirer in Chief' and offer hope to the masses. Not a bad goal at all, and I could subscribe to that. But if he's as disorganized as Packer suggests, then we'll all pray to God that he has an excellent team of staff to pick up after him. All presidents need that, but a President Obama might need it more. President Hillary Clinton would be a leader that "would have to use unifying rhetoric and reach across partisan lines. But ... she is readier to march ahead and let those who will follow her do so." As Packer adds, "These rival conceptions of the Presidency—Clinton as executive, Obama as visionary—reflect a deeper difference in how the two candidates analyze what ails the country."

I have said in this blog and in conversations with friends of various political persuasions, I consider myself a moderate but I also found the populism espoused by John Edwards to make the most sense. I respect that he said, in effect, to have the healthcare system most of us believe we need (i.e., one that covers all Americans), we're going to have to raise taxes. This would be difficult to carry out, admittedly. Clinton's suggested health plan is very much like Edwards' plan. [Which makes me wonder, would he be a good choice to fill the role of Secretary of Health and Human Services, or lead the healthcare charge as Vice President, or should he be Attorney General, where his talents seem best suited? And if he had any of those roles, would a President Clinton or a President Obama be concerned about the prospect of cabinet member Edwards trying to draw too much credit and run against the sitting president?] I have no doubt that a President Clinton would have an active role in shaping that national discussion. How would a President Obama inject his vision of national healthcare? It could be a wonderful plan, and I'm willing to hear him discuss it. But Edwards' plan sounded best to me.

New Jersey is among the nearly two dozen states that will hold a primary on Super Tuesday (soon after the Super Bowl. Go Giants!), and I'm still unsure who I'll vote for. I'm probably leaning toward Clinton at the moment, she seems more able to step in and lead. But Obama is an inspiring figure. So I'm left wondering, Is Inspiration Enough? Sen. Obama's comments about Iran earlier in the campaign concerned me. Is he so naive to think that having a simple conversation with the Iranians will actually be perceived as a simple conversation? Good God! People who can honestly say the met the president at the White House -- any president -- seem to others as if they've reached a pinnacle. That's why photo ops are considered important. They lend credibility to the poor schmoe next to the hot shot.

The wife of a friend of mine ran for public office in their home town; she used a photo of her with then Sen. Jon Corzine in her publicity. It made her look like she had connections, which was the point. She'd never met him before the evening when the photo was taken. I suspect the other candidates in line after her to get their photo taken were similarly unfamiliar with Sen. Corzine. At a certain level, it's all about appearances.

So publically speaking with a high-ranking official of a nation we publically accuse of sponsoring international terrorism is a mistake. No ifs ands or buts about it. Would a President Obama agree with campaigning Obama? I don't know. And I see it as something that would create tension in an Obama White House. Like the fictional President Bartlet, his administration would make a lot of early mistakes. I'm not sure we can afford to let him struggle so much.

But I also don't know that we can afford to have a Republican continue in the office for the next four years. So can Sen. Clinton defeat Sen. McCain? That's a subject for another day. If I'm so inspired.

Chapter 71.6: There's No Crying in Politics

There may be no crying, but there certainly seems to be political capital in coming close to crying. Hillary Clinton has taken New Hampshire, surprising me and probably a lot of Americans who were starting to think that the Obama Express was getting into gear and powering up for an impressive spring. That still may happen, but Sen. Clinton clearly isn't done.

What surprised me more than Clinton's victory in the primary, however, was that there were voters who were swayed by her emotional answer about how hard the campaign slog can be and why she is still doing it. I don't believe it was forced; I accept that she has finally found her voice, as she said later. But she'll need to back that up with an even more grueling schedule ahead of her. And I don't think for a second that Sen. Obama is going to concede anything either.

Chapter 71.4: Iowa, the Meaningless But Influential Vote

So what did we learn from the Iowa Caucuses? Well, since they don't really mean anything -- no delegates were won -- then I think the answer is "very little." But they've started to shake things up, and let's face it, the campaign had grown boring already.

So here's my little assessment of what we know about these candidates now. I'm pleasantly surprised by John Edwards. While I consider myself a moderate, I like Edwards, who is clearly more on the liberal/progressive side of the fence. I just don't know whether Edwards can be elected president at this time. His performance in Iowa, while encouraging, doesn't come close to guaranteeing that. It doesn't guarantee anything. But it shows that his message has reached many people in a state better known -- at least nationally -- for conservative values.

I was shocked that Hillary came in third, but her showing was 29.5 percent of the vote as compared to 29.7 percent for Edwards. And considering the whole nonbinding aspect of the caucus, that's a completely negligible difference.

But Edwards needed to be closer to Barack Obama to be viable. They're targeting the same type of Democrat. So if they split the African Americans and liberals (do we agree that Hillary is not a liberal/progressive, she's a moderate?), then that suggests the majority of the party is still on the L/P side rather than the moderate side. In a national election, that's a different issue, but here in the primaries it's all about what kind of Democrat are you. (While I consider myself a moderate, I also believe that poverty relief -- a liberal concern to be sure -- is one of the most important issues facing this country and the world. Never forget what type of Muslims attacked us on 9/11; they were poor. That is the overriding issue throughout the world.)

There are still many important questions on the Republican side of the campaign, too. I was not surprised at all that Huckabee led the Republicans. He's a former governor, so he knows how to lead people and organizations, and he's a Baptist preacher, so he appeals to the evangelicals in Middle America. I was, however, surprised that Fred Thompson came in third. This guy has been talking about how he doesn't really care for campaigning. Does that work in Iowa? I wouldn't have thought so. But he placed third.

Thompson's showing is far more impressive than Hillary coming in third for the Democrats. I was more shocked that Rudy fared so poorly. How can anyone call this man a frontrunner if he can't even garner 5 percent of the caucus votes in Iowa? This may mean he's not a national candidate and is only viable as a VP nominee. He really needs New Hampshire or he may find himself out on his own on Super Tuesday. I'm kind of pleased, actually, that McCain fared as well as he did. He's a real candidate. I believe he's actually more conservative than he's generally considered, and I wouldn't vote for him for that reason, but I do think he is a noble politician who cares about the country. There are few that I hold in the same regard.

As for some of the other names that will one day not even warrant a mention on a Wikipedia entry about the 2008 election, I'm glad to see that Joe Biden (who I generally like, but isn't a viable presidential candidate at this point; he's a possible Sec. of Defense, perhaps, though that would rankle a lot of folks too.) has dropped out. I'd forgotten that Chris Dodd was still in.

And as for Republicans, will some Mexicans please take Tom Tancredo out and rake him over the coals... And while they're at it, do the same to Democratic governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, who should never, ever be elected to anything after letting the Los Alomos situation "blow up" on his watch.

That's a long answer to explain why I can only shrug my shoulders and say "I don't know" to the question of what I think about Iowa. What do you all think?

Chapter 65.7: Finally, Some Sense and (Perhaps) Honesty

I know a lot of Democrats (and probably a lot of Republicans) don't want to hear it, but anyone with a whit of sense would see that we have to have a significant presence in Iraq for the forseeable future. Not because of oil, but because we have a moral imperative. I completely agree that President Bush and Vice President Cheney led us into the wrong place at the wrong time, but we're there now and we will have to be there for years hence.

Apparently the major Democratic candidates for president are starting to acknowledge that too, though I hesitate to say they're just realizing it. I think they -- and certainly Sen. Clinton -- have known it for quite a while. Iraq cannot sustain itself if we were to leave. "That's their problem," I hear people say. But, no, it's not. It's ours too. While some Americans seem to wish we could go back to being a 19th century agrarian society in which we could afford to be xenophobic and isolated from other people's problems, that's simply not possible. And though at this point a majority of Americans say the war is going poorly and we should pull our troops out of harm's way, it's simply a bad plan.

Allowing Iraq to struggle for itself makes as much sense as allowing Germany or Japan to fend for itself after World War II. At that point, the concern was Soviet Russia and probably China too (I'm not a student of history, so I don't know if China was jonesing to jump into Japan). We had global concerns then, and we have similar concerns now.

Anyway, back to the 2008 presidential race: The three major Democratic candidates (Clinton, Sen. Obama, and former Sen. Edwards) would all keep some contingent of forces there. Gov. Bill Richardson says "Get out now," but, if memory serves, this is the man who allowed Los Alamos's secrets to walk out the door as Sec. of Energy and then somehow got elected governor of New Mexico. Sen. Biden, the future Sec. of Defense (only because Delaware's governor is a Democrat), says split the country three ways.

Quite clearly, a lot remains to be seen, but I'm just happy to see that the people who might become president recognize that even though the war is unpopular and divisive -- and politically devastating (hello, one-term presidencies!) keeping our troops there is what we have to do until Iraq is stable. We never should have invaded in the first place, but we're stuck in the sand till further notice

Chapter 55.2: Catch the News Cycle

Sen. Barack Obama has announced he's created an exploratory committee about running for president. And in other places he's quoted as telling Iowa party leaders that he's definitely in. So what does unknown-outside-his-state Rep. Tom Tancredo decide to do? He's launching his exploratory committee too. Way to capture that news cycle!

I'm no C-SPAN geek who knows every representative and senator (I barely recall the name of my town's mayor), but if Congressman Tancredo is looking to get much attention and still have a viable candidacy by the end of 2007, he's going to need some help forming a message beyond his attitude against immigration and getting that message to the public. I don't know that this image on an unofficial blog will help him in New Jersey, for example. Perhaps he doesn't care since Jersey's been a pretty blue state the past few elections, but my first impression is he needs some work. Who was the last one-issue president elected?