It’s that time again. Baseball season!
There are several enticing stories surrounding this season, not the least of which is that it’s the one hundredth anniversary of the last time the Chicago Cubs have won the World Series. My White Sox fan friends in Chicago notwithstanding, I think most baseball people would be pleasantly surprised to see them at least make the Series if not actually win it. Personally, I believe they lost their chance in 2003 – though I don’t blame Bartman, I blame their pitching and inept fielding.
Anyway, I open this season as I’ve opened each season since I started this blog: My annual predictions. Since it takes too long to actually report on every single team, I’m going to give more general statements.
NL East: As usual, I hesitate to predict the Mets will take the division because – as they proved last year – it’s always within their capacity to screw things up and steal defeat from the jaws of victory. That said, I believe the Mets pitching staff is much better than it was last year. Johan Santana is quite possibly the best pitcher in the game today, and by placing him the admittedly weaker National League, he should be able to dominate. I’m looking for an excellent season and the first Met Cy Young Award winner in more than twenty years (Dwight Gooden, 1985). Mets to take the division. Their competition will be Atlanta and Philadelphia. I have no faith in Washington or Florida.
NL Central: This division will be fun to watch. It’ll be either Chicago or Milwaukee, both of which are fun to watch. I can’t trust Milwaukee’s pitching however. Even their ace, Ben Sheets, is a risk given his injury history, though Jeff Suppan is usually steady. After them, their current staff is Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra – not exactly John Maine, Oliver Perez, and El Duque. Plus their bullpen has more questions than a four-year old. They can hit, and it should be fun to watch Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun lead their offense. The Cubs have a better pitching staff going in: Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are fairly solid. Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster, and Jon Lieber seem like the likely other starters if Rich Hill isn’t able to hold onto his spot in the rotation.
The other possibility in this division are the Reds, though I honestly don’t expect them to do much of anything. The rest of the division has become pretty much a joke. It’s hard to believe that the Astros were in the 2005 World Series and the Cardinals won it all in 2006. Like most teams these days, they don’t have enough pitching. Pittsburgh doesn’t count. Cubs to take the division.
NL West: This division is a crap shoot because there are several teams with enough talent to win. The worst of the west, the Giants, actually have pretty decent pitching – and if Barry Zito can return to his old Cy Young form, they may actually be able to find enough offense to contend. But I doubt it. Coming from the West are the NL Champion Colorado Rockies as well as the resurgent Dodgers, the much improved Diamondbacks, and last year’s second worst chokers, the Padres – all of which have the ability to sneak out with at least the Wild Card. I think we’re going to see the baby snakes prove themselves. Diamondbacks to take the division, Rockies take the Wild Card.
AL East: This remains a Red Sox and Yankees division, but the Blue Jays are ready to surprise people. Their pitching staff sports former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay as well as Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett. Their bullpen is a little sketchy, but should be ok, especially if BJ Ryan returns with anywhere near his past accomplishments. Both the Yankees and Red Sox remain quite well stocked, however, so anything less than second place for either must be viewed as a terrible failure. The Rays (formerly from hell, but now simply hailing from Tampa) have greatly improved but won’t reach 75 wins. Baltimore will probably find themselves in the basement of the division. Red Sox take the division.
AL Central: The Tigers are scary! They have pitching, they have "mad offense," and they have one of the game’s best managers. I expect great things from them. The Indians will be strong again as well, though I would be impressed if C.C. Sabathia can retain his Cy Young form in his walk year and especially if Fausto Carmona can match his accomplishments from last year. The White Sox should be improved, and if the Royals can pitch at all, they may surprise people; they’ve got some great young hitters like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, who had a strong second half last year after an awful beginning. I don’t think the Twins can compete with these guys, though they always play hard and have lots of talent still. Tigers take the division, Indians win Wild Card.
AL West: Like its NL cousin, I expect this division to be fairly tight most of the season. But I don’t think it’ll be for the same reasons. The Angels could have run away with the division, but they’re already struggling with their pitching, which has been hit by injuries. John Lackey – out. Kelvim Escobar – out, possibly for the full season. Jon Garland is toward the top of the rotation now. He should be stronger than he was in hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago, but he’s got to prove himself again. The Mariners have replenished their rotation with young stud Erik Bedard, who along with Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and newcomer Carlos Silva should make the Mariners the biggest unexpected surprise of the year. The Angels could still squeak it out if they get their pitching back, but I’m going to go out on a limb. Mariners take the division.
I’ll update these predictions after I’m proven wrong. But with these eight teams, I’m making the following predictions. NL playoffs: Mets defeat Rockies, Diamondbacks defeat Cubs. Mets defeat Diamondbacks. AL playoffs, Tigers defeat Mariners, Red Sox defeat Indians. Tigers defeat Red Sox. Tigers beat Mets in World Series.
