Chapter 75.2: Are You Ready for Some Baseball?!

It’s that time again. Baseball season!

There are several enticing stories surrounding this season, not the least of which is that it’s the one hundredth anniversary of the last time the Chicago Cubs have won the World Series. My White Sox fan friends in Chicago notwithstanding, I think most baseball people would be pleasantly surprised to see them at least make the Series if not actually win it. Personally, I believe they lost their chance in 2003 – though I don’t blame Bartman, I blame their pitching and inept fielding.

Anyway, I open this season as I’ve opened each season since I started this blog: My annual predictions. Since it takes too long to actually report on every single team, I’m going to give more general statements.

NL East: As usual, I hesitate to predict the Mets will take the division because – as they proved last year – it’s always within their capacity to screw things up and steal defeat from the jaws of victory. That said, I believe the Mets pitching staff is much better than it was last year. Johan Santana is quite possibly the best pitcher in the game today, and by placing him the admittedly weaker National League, he should be able to dominate. I’m looking for an excellent season and the first Met Cy Young Award winner in more than twenty years (Dwight Gooden, 1985). Mets to take the division. Their competition will be Atlanta and Philadelphia. I have no faith in Washington or Florida.

NL Central: This division will be fun to watch. It’ll be either Chicago or Milwaukee, both of which are fun to watch. I can’t trust Milwaukee’s pitching however. Even their ace, Ben Sheets, is a risk given his injury history, though Jeff Suppan is usually steady. After them, their current staff is Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra – not exactly John Maine, Oliver Perez, and El Duque. Plus their bullpen has more questions than a four-year old. They can hit, and it should be fun to watch Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun lead their offense. The Cubs have a better pitching staff going in: Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are fairly solid. Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster, and Jon Lieber seem like the likely other starters if Rich Hill isn’t able to hold onto his spot in the rotation.

The other possibility in this division are the Reds, though I honestly don’t expect them to do much of anything. The rest of the division has become pretty much a joke. It’s hard to believe that the Astros were in the 2005 World Series and the Cardinals won it all in 2006. Like most teams these days, they don’t have enough pitching. Pittsburgh doesn’t count. Cubs to take the division.

NL West: This division is a crap shoot because there are several teams with enough talent to win. The worst of the west, the Giants, actually have pretty decent pitching – and if Barry Zito can return to his old Cy Young form, they may actually be able to find enough offense to contend. But I doubt it. Coming from the West are the NL Champion Colorado Rockies as well as the resurgent Dodgers, the much improved Diamondbacks, and last year’s second worst chokers, the Padres – all of which have the ability to sneak out with at least the Wild Card. I think we’re going to see the baby snakes prove themselves. Diamondbacks to take the division, Rockies take the Wild Card.

AL East: This remains a Red Sox and Yankees division, but the Blue Jays are ready to surprise people. Their pitching staff sports former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay as well as Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett. Their bullpen is a little sketchy, but should be ok, especially if BJ Ryan returns with anywhere near his past accomplishments. Both the Yankees and Red Sox remain quite well stocked, however, so anything less than second place for either must be viewed as a terrible failure. The Rays (formerly from hell, but now simply hailing from Tampa) have greatly improved but won’t reach 75 wins. Baltimore will probably find themselves in the basement of the division. Red Sox take the division.

AL Central: The Tigers are scary! They have pitching, they have "mad offense," and they have one of the game’s best managers. I expect great things from them. The Indians will be strong again as well, though I would be impressed if C.C. Sabathia can retain his Cy Young form in his walk year and especially if Fausto Carmona can match his accomplishments from last year. The White Sox should be improved, and if the Royals can pitch at all, they may surprise people; they’ve got some great young hitters like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, who had a strong second half last year after an awful beginning. I don’t think the Twins can compete with these guys, though they always play hard and have lots of talent still. Tigers take the division, Indians win Wild Card.

AL West: Like its NL cousin, I expect this division to be fairly tight most of the season. But I don’t think it’ll be for the same reasons. The Angels could have run away with the division, but they’re already struggling with their pitching, which has been hit by injuries. John Lackey – out. Kelvim Escobar – out, possibly for the full season. Jon Garland is toward the top of the rotation now. He should be stronger than he was in hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago, but he’s got to prove himself again. The Mariners have replenished their rotation with young stud Erik Bedard, who along with Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and newcomer Carlos Silva should make the Mariners the biggest unexpected surprise of the year. The Angels could still squeak it out if they get their pitching back, but I’m going to go out on a limb. Mariners take the division.

I’ll update these predictions after I’m proven wrong. But with these eight teams, I’m making the following predictions. NL playoffs: Mets defeat Rockies, Diamondbacks defeat Cubs. Mets defeat Diamondbacks. AL playoffs, Tigers defeat Mariners, Red Sox defeat Indians. Tigers defeat Red Sox. Tigers beat Mets in World Series.

Chapter 72.4: Thank You, Omar

It's a long, long baseball season, and even months in first place doesn't guarantee that your team will be there at the end. Case in point: the 2007 Mets.

But my Mets have taken a much needed and long awaited step toward absolution for the 2007 season by acquiring a man who may be the best pitcher in baseball. Johan Santana, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, is on the brink of joining the Mets. All that stands in the way is a multi-million dollar contract, which is expected to land in the realm of $150 million for seven years. By the time the new stadium opens next year, I'll count myself lucky to still be able to afford to watch them play on television.

But I can always read a paper, and I look forward to recounting around twenty wins next season and perhaps even another Cy Young Award for Mr. Santana. Welcome to New York, Johan. We're happy to see you. Now win.

Chapter 70.3: Hall of Almost

Somehow I missed this piece in the New York Times about the "Hall of Merit." Years ago, I had a similar idea -- that is, I consider some players members of the "Hall of Almost Famous."

What these folks are doing is admirable: they're trying to evaluate players from the whole of baseball history using the benefit of a broader array of statistics. No one really cared about on-base percentage until the mid-1980s, for example. Correction -- most baseball writers didn't care about on-base percentage. Or WHIP for pitchers. That is, walks plus hits per innings pitched.

It's not as though people didn't think of those things, however. I remember listening to Ralph Kiner announcing Mets games when Jerry Koosman was pitching for them in the late '70s. He'd talk about how his record was bad, but he was pitching well. "You can tell that because he's given up nearly a hit an inning," the ol' power hitter said. I've often felt Kiner was an underrated announcer. I'd like to see him considered for the Hall of Fame as an announcer as well as a player.

But back to my point. The Baseball Think Factory has reevaluated all the game's players and allowed their small group to vote players into their own Hall of Merit. Players like Joe Adcock, Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Vada Pinson should be reconsidered. I think they'd probably all remain in the Hall of Almost; I've not checked yet what Baseball Think Factory has determined. I'd say Gil Hodges too, though I know there's a strong contingent of Brooklynites and Dodger fans who'd like him in the actual Hall of Fame.

I've read several arguments about whether Tim Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame; he's eligible this year for the first time. I watched him play a lot when he was an Expo, and he was an excellent ballplayer. I'd have loved to have him on the Mets. Back in the '80s. I don't know if it was all the running he'd done early in his career, all the years on the turf in Montreal, or the drugs he did in the '80s, but once he turned thirty, his career went into a slow but steady decline. When he arrived in New York as a Yankee, he remained a solid complementary player. The question, then, is whether his years as the best leadoff man in the National League were enough to warrant his induction into the Hall.

The Hall of Merit says yes. Matt's Hall of Almost Famous puts him on the bubble. If I were a voter, I'd strongly consider him. But I don't think he should gain immediate induction. Others disagree with me, but I think players voted in during their first year of eligibility are more special, more worthy. I think there's a major difference between Tom Seaver and Phil Niekro. Niekro had more wins and played mostly on worse teams, but Seaver was simply on a different level. And it's not simply because Seaver threw a great fastball and slider and Niekro was a knuckleballer. Lots of people don't even think Niekro should be in the Hall at all.

The article also says Dave Stieb should be in the Hall of Fame. I thought he was a very good pitcher, and it's a shame that he just missed out on a perfect game, but I just don't think he's a Hall of Famer. He pitched in an era with lots of mediocre pitchers, it's true, but he never came close to winning the Cy Young Award, never won twenty games in a season... How can you say he was one of the best pitchers of his era? Because he had a good WHIP? That's true, but is that really enough? Ask Jerry Koosman. His ERA was better than Stieb's, posted a nearly identical WHIP, won 222 games (while playing for some really abysmal Mets teams), and came in second in the 1976 Cy Young Award voting. Where's the hue and cry for putting Koos into the Hall?

Koosman was a darn good pitcher. But he's not a Hall of Famer. Neither is Dave Stieb. Was Tim Raines better than Lou Brock? There's lots of statistics that would say yes. But Brock may have been a more important player. I think that matters too -- at least to Hall of Fame voters.

Well, I suppose I should read the Factory site. I'd enjoy a good baseball argument tonight.

Chapter 68: Playoff Predictions

Not much time this morning, so I'll be quick:

Red Sox vs. Angels: From what I've read, the Angels have lost their center fielder, Gary Matthews, for the playoffs as well as Bartolo Colon -- who really wasn't much of a factor this year, so I don't think that's too significant. More important are the question marks about Vladimir Guererro. If he's out or not up to snuff, the Angels are done already. The Red Sox have too much talent to lose in the short series. My prediction: Red Sox in 4.

Indians vs. Yankees: I hate to say it, but I think the Yankees will advance to the ALCS. They've dominated the Indians this year (6-0) and in the short series, they have a distinct advantage. But the Indians have a strong 1-2 punch, so the Yankee hater in me has hope. I think this will be a hard-fought series, but if the Indians can't win with Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia, they've got little hope. My prediction: Yankees in 5.

Rockies vs. Phillies: This could be the most exciting series of the early round. The Rockies went 14-1 over the last few weeks of the season and won an exciting playoff game against the Padres to qualify for their second-ever post-season berth. While the Phils' pitching is decidedly mediocre, they've been doing well lately. I think some folks will be surprised to see more scoring in Philadelphia's stadium than in Coors Field, which may actually give the Rockies a slight advantage. I'd love to be wishy-washy and call this a pick 'em series, but I'll go out on a limb. My prediction: Rockies in 5.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs: I'd love to see the Cubs advance, and they very well might. But this team had the worst record of all post-season qualifiers. While the Diamondbacks scored relatively few runs (less than they allowed -- not a good sign, especially when you have a stud like reigning Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb), their pitching staff includes battle-tested Livan Hernandez. Again, this is a tough series to gauge. My prediction: Cubs in 5.

Chapter 63: Milestones

Some significant milestones are in sight for many future Hall of Fame baseball players. Today, Frank Thomas became the twenty-first player to hit 500 home runs (before being ejected from the game). And it's likely that sometime this weekend Craig Biggio of the Astros will become the twenty-seventh to reach 3,000 hits for his career. [Correction: Biggio knocked five base hits last night to surpass 3,000. Congratulations Craig!] Both are almost certain Hall of Famers. Thomas won two Most Valuable Player Awards in the 1990s, and while Biggio has started to slow down, he's been one of the more consistent hitters in the National League since 1988.

But they're not the only people who have significant milestones ahead of them. Of course, Barry Bonds is the most obvious, with just a handful of home runs to go before he ties Hank Aaron's record of career home runs. I'm no fan of Bonds, whose reputation has been dragged through the mud due to his suspected steroid or human growth hormone use. It's sad, too, because he was a certain Hall of Famer before he seems to have started using the substances. Add on his career-long surliness and attitude problems, and you probably have as many people hoping his hamstring snaps as he's circling the bases on 754, if not sooner, than rooting for him to break Aaron's record.

The guy I'm rooting for to reach his personal milestone is Tom Glavine, who is now three wins away from 300 for his career. After a stellar career with the Atlanta Braves, where he won two Cy Young Awards, he came to the Mets and has been solid. There was a point last year when I thought he might be able to win another Cy Young award; had he not been left with so many no decisions and reached 20 wins, he probably would have. I know a lot of Mets fans are sick of his soft-tossing and picky nibbling at the corners, but I'm a fan of smart pitching, and I enjoy seeing him work and listening to him talk about his craft.

Another craftsman is Roger Clemens, though I think we're finally seeing the final season of his remarkable career. He needs one more win to reach 350, and even though the Yankees suck, he should be able to get it despite his slowing fastball.

With such achievements in the near future, I wouldn't be surprised if Major League Baseball did something during the All-Star Game to recognize the achievements -- particularly for Thomas and Biggio. (To Bud Selig's happiness, Bonds will likely not have reached the Aaron mark by the All-Star Game.) Though Biggio doesn't deserve a spot in the game itself, I think it's a worthwhile gesture for these guys.

Chapter 51.7: Kids in the Hall

It's Hall of Fame voting time again. (No, I don't have a vote.) This year's three big new names are Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, and Mark McGwire. Gwynn and Ripken are obvious HOFers, so I won't even belabor that debate. And McGwire, well, that's something else entirely. Given what's been mentioned on the radio and online lately, a lot of voters have decided to leave him off their ballots -- quite possibly enough to deny him election this year. Fair play. But will that happen next year too? Is he now forever left in the background because of the unproven (but likely) accusations of using enhancements? Time will tell, and it will speak loudly. Personally, I think voters eventually will acquiesce and vote him into the Hall and others will decry it as hypocrisy.

On another issue, I'd like to throw out these names for the Hall of Almost Famous: Jim Rice, Goose Gossage, Bret Saberhagen. (There are others too.) In my opinion, Rice was a great hitter and deserves enshrinement. Gossage too, because he helped change the role of relievers. But I don't think either will get in. Rice's numbers were short of most of the major metrics (e.g., 500 HRs, 3,000 hits, 1,500 RBI) and reportedly his attitude annoyed the writers who vote at this point, but he came darn close last year so perhaps there's hope. Goose? It's a harder sell. No one seems to remember that after he left the Yankees -- well, at least after the Padres -- he became just another reliever. Other than his final year (with Seattle!) he hadn't finished more than half the games he pitched; this man was not a closer the final seven years of his long career. But he had several years as one of the best. Of course, his time with the Yankees is his claim to fame, and while he was the most feared reliever at that time, I'm not sure he kept that status long enough for enshrinement. The man wasn't Mariano, whose eventual enshrinement is a foregone conclusion. Saberhagen? Excellent for a few seasons (two Cy Young awards), but not otherwise close to enshrinment. He just didn't have it for long enough to deserve it.

Just another guy whose baseball card is worth a few pennies more than the common player.

Chapter 51.2: Most Deserved Awards

I'm pleased to see the voters did what was right, once again. No, I'm not talking about America's voters and the Democratic victories in the House and Senate. I mean the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards. Despite my hopes for Carlos Beltran becoming the first Met to take the award, Ryan Howard was a lock. He earned that award in the batter's box, no question about it. But he's a butcher in the field. However, fielding doesn't hurt you in this voting -- as long as you do it (not many designated hitters win the award) -- it can only help you.

Around my part of the country, it seemed most baseball fans expected Derek Jeter to take the AL MVP, and he had an excellent season. But Justin Morneau (.321, 34 homers, 130 RBI) was an enormous part of their Central Division championship. I'm well aware that Joe Mauer was the batting champ, but clearly the Canadian-born Morneau was the offensive firepower on the Twins.

I have no problem with Johan Santana taking his second AL Cy Young award, but I'm not sure if anyone should have won in the National League. I suppose Brandon Webb was the best pitcher over the entire season, but no NL hurler was really great. This was the worst season for pitching in the National League in a generation.