Thursday, October 20, 2005

Chapter 40.8: A World Series for Baseball Fans

Wow, that was great baseball! I didn’t get a single one of my predictions correct in the championship series – correction, I predicted the NLCS would go six games, but I got the winner wrong, so it’s a moot point.

The Albert Pujols homer will fade into a pleasant memory for Cardinals fans, a step or two below what the Carlton Fisk homer in the ’75 Series means for Red Sox fans. The four complete games in the ALCS will be an interesting bit of trivia, but hardly important UNLESS it affects the Sox bullpen in the series. Are they well rested? Are they too rusty?

Bullpens will be interesting to watch in this series, because while both teams have decent pens, they also have excellent starters. I suspect we’re going to see a bunch of 2-0, 3-1 scores, maybe a 4-3 game. But I don’t expect either team to have an offensive explosion. It will come down to matchups and probably a bit of good fortune (or ill fortune, depending on who you root for).

I like the Sox starting four a hair more than the Astros’ staff, but you can’t overlook the experience level of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. These guys will not be shaken by the stepped-up level of play. With Clemens available twice to start and potentially an exciting relief appearance a la Randy Johnson in 2001, the Astros have a strong hand available to them. Pettitte is one of the all-time greats in pressure post-season games; he should have two starts. And in a game seven it’s all hands on deck.

The White Sox have El Duque. I’ve been impressed by his unflappable presence in the post-season over the years, but I don’t expect him to be a huge factor in the series. I could be wrong. Jose Contreras has pitched well of late, and I think he’s proven himself this season. Freddy Garcia could be the X-factor. A Garcia/Brendan Backe matchup favors the White Sox.

My prediction: White Sox in six.

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