Chapter 44: My Predictions for the 2006 Season

The season’s a week old now, but I think there’s still time to make predictions that aren’t too much influenced by what has already occurred. I’ll offer this caveat: As a Met fan, I pay more attention to the NL East, so my predictions of the other divisions could be missing key ingredients. Don’t make any bets based on what I say. Ok, I’ll get right into it, division by division:

NL East: Everyone else is picking the Braves to repeat, and it’s hard to argue with the past 15 years of success (heck, they probably would have taken the division in ’94, even though the Expos were in the lead when the strike occurred). But I’m a bit concerned about their pitching. They don’t have Leo Mazzone to keep them in sync anymore, as he’s joined his buddy Sam Perlozzo in Baltimore. I don’t know what to make of Roger McDowell as a pitching coach. They still have hitting, and their pitchers are quite capable. But I think this year the Mets will finally top the Braves, to take their first division title since 1988.

The Mets have the hitting and they have the pitching, especially in the bullpen. I love the acquisition of Carlos Delgado. He’s still got a quick bat and is a steady run producer. It’s not just home runs for that guy. And David Wright is a superstar in waiting. Anderson Hernandez has got to hit better than he did last year and has at the start of the 2006 season, but he’s still a better option in the field than Kaz Matsui. If the Mets lineup can withstand another Rey Ordonez type of hitter, then they may be ok. The outfield seems fine with a more relaxed Carlos Beltran, and Cliff Floyd in his walk year. I think Aaron Heilman deserved to be a starter, based on his showing in spring training, and I’m not convinced he won’t eventually –- even this year -– become one, but Brian Bannister has some ability. He was wild in his first major league start, but let’s see how he’s throwing in May.

The Phillies also could surprise people. They have some solid pitching, led by Jon Lieber, and first baseman Ryan Howard is to the Phillies’ future what David Wright is for the Mets. They might find themselves anchoring the NL all-star infield for the next dozen years (although Albert Pujols may have something to say about that). All that said, I think they’ll wind up with a solid third-place showing, somewhere above .500. I’d say they’ll have about 87-90 wins.

The Nationals got worse, and though they’ll probably top the gutted fish from Florida, we may yet be surprised at what Joe Girardi puts together in Miami. The Marlins have some proven players in Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Despite their youth (starting the season with six rookies in the lineup) I think they match up well against the Nationals, with whom they’ll compete 19 times. I predict the Nationals will finish with about 78 wins, topping the Marlins by about three or four games, but it could go either way.

NL Central: This is going to be the year of the Cardinals. Albert Pujols will take the baseball world by storm, reaching heights that only a pumped up Barry Bonds might imagine. I think Pujols will inaugurate the new Busch stadium with another MVP season and perhaps a couple other individual titles. Dare I say it, he could become the first triple-crown winner in the major leagues since Carl Yastrzemski (Quick quiz: who was the last player to win the Triple Crown before Yaz? Another quick quiz: who was the last National Leaguer to win the Triple Crown? Send me your answers at mattsinclair@myway.com). Anyway, the Astros are another year older and likely one rocket down in the rotation. But having consecutive 20-game-winner Roy Oswalt at the top of the rotation doesn’t hurt. I don’t expect him to have any trouble moving into the ace slot now that Roger Clemens has made good on his second attempt at retirement –- though the jury is still out on how long it’ll last. And Andy Pettitte remains a strong starter, though he’s had a lot of innings in that arm and elbow. I believe his days as a front-line starter are fast on the decline. Time to get crafty, Lurch.

Too often, The Astros hitting was light last year (for example, during the World Series), and I’m not sure how much more they’ve added. But they’re the defending NL champs, so they must be respected. I’d love to see the Cubbies take the division and sweep their way into the World Series and complete the hat-trick of long-suffering World Series winners. Alas, I don’t think it’s going to happen. They may even have difficulty topping their neighbors to the north. The Milwaukee Brewers have quietly put together some strong young arms and bats and stand poised to surprise people. I realize they’ve started out well this year and are catching people’s attention, but the path was blazed last year in particular. Their manager Ned Yost strikes me as a capable game tactician, though I’ve not actually watched many of his Brew Crew’s games. But he’s a former catcher; he knows what he’s doing. As for the Reds and Pirates, build your farm systems. You’re going nowhere, but your ballparks look nice.

NL West: This has to be the most difficult division to predict. The Giants are ancient and have mediocre or un-established pitchers, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are woeful. The Padres have quality, but I simply don’t see them taking it either. The Dodgers, by default, may end up with the division. I don’t like the makeup of any of these teams. I think it’ll be a fun division to watch in that the race will be close. But I’m predicting Dodgers topping the Padres by about two games with the Giants close behind them. This race will go to the end of September, but that’s almost as deep as any NL West teams will play.

NL playoff predictions: Mets defeat Dodgers; Cardinals defeat Braves. Cardinals avenge their 2000 loss to the Mets in the NLCS and move on to the World Series.

AL East: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Once again, the Yankees will eke out the division, their aging pitching not able to stake out a lead in April or May. I’m predicting an off year for the inimitable Mariano Rivera: only 37 saves and an ERA above 2.50. The guy’s a Hall of Famer -– probably the first First-Ballot reliever ever inducted -– but not even he can withstand the number of innings he’ll be needed to pitch. He’s going to be exhausted by October and may even blow a major playoff game, which is quite unlike him. The Red Sox still have some fire power, and a week ago I might have predicted them to come in first, but they just don’t seem to have the same fire in their guts. I’d love to see them top the Yankees and I hope I’m wrong about them, but they may be hard-pressed to best the Blue Jays, who I see as the wild card club from the American League.

Toronto has made several great moves, and even picking up BJ Ryan will turn out to be a wonderful acquisition, though I don’t see him as a clutch reliever yet. (Heck, even Armando Benitez helped his team to the World Series, but he’s just a guy with a fastball.) The D-Rays have put together some excellent young players who no one’s heard of. Look for them to make the race interesting. They won’t finish the season at over .500, but they’ll prove to themselves and the twelve people who root for them that they’re a team on the rise. Baltimore? Is there still a team in Baltimore? Sam Perlozzo is going to wonder what he’s done to his buddy Leo Mazzone, bringing him to the worst club in the American League east of Kansas City. Take out Miguel Tejada and this team would struggle at Triple-A. They can’t catch the ball, their hitters are over-matched most of the time, and they have no pitching. For now. The best move they made in the off-season was picking up Mazzone, and he’ll weed out the chaff in that pitching staff. I think he’ll be able to help make a star out of Kris Benson, but this year is going to be difficult in bird-town.

AL Central: This could be the most interesting division in baseball. The World Champion White Sox are stronger than last year. Their pitching staff is extremely solid. They have a strong lineup, especially since Paul Konerko returned to keep people protected. I think they’ll be able to win the division again. The Cleveland Indians should get a half-share of Chicago’s World Series winnings, because they helped the White Sox play like a playoff team at the end of last season, when the Injuns almost snuck in a playoff appearance. They may see a drop-off this year, but the Indians should still be a playoff contender and might even sneak into the wild card berth.

I like the Tigers to surprise people and top .500 with new manager Jimmy Leyland showing the team how to win. They have holes, but Leyland has always been a good teacher, and he’s got Ivan Rodriguez to keep that young staff focused. Say what you will about how he got Pudgy, but the man has consistently been a great catcher. He calls a good game, he settles his pitchers as well as anyone in the game, and his arm is still among the best behind the plate. Even if he’s exposed as having been a steroid user (which I don't know to be the case, I just suspect it), he might be able to make the Hall of Fame, whereas people like Rafael Palmeiro will have a tough time gaining entry. The Twins still have a capable team, and they could even win the division. With Johann Santana at the top of their rotation, the Twins have the right stuff in their pitching staff. While the Twins have strong fundamentals, I just don’t think they have the offensive fire-power to top the White Sox this year. I think that outside of the White Sox taking the division somewhat handily, the middle three teams are going to bunch up together, with the Royals wallowing in their now traditional bottom spot.

AL West: A lot of folks are predicting the A’s will win the west, and some have even said they’ll go to the World Series. I don’t think it’ll happen. The A’s have a solid club, but I think we’ll be seeing Barry Zito traded to a contender by mid-July. That’s because the A’s will be looking up at the Angels once again. The Angels and the A’s are the only teams that really matter in this division; while Texas has some great hitters, they’re still not capable of making a dent on the two top teams with the pitching staff they have. And the Mariners suck.

AL prediction: White Sox defeat Yankees. Angels defeat Blue Jays. White Sox repeat as AL Champs.

World Series prediction: White Sox top the take their second consecutive championship, again topping an NL Central club. Four games to two.