Chapter 49.95: Wrong Again

Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals, the World Champions of Major League Baseball. Not really what I expected, obviously.

I'll say this, they certainly turned things on at the right time, but that assumes such a thing is possible, and I don't believe that. Baseball skills are not something one "turns on" at that level, and I don't believe the Tigers had turned theirs off. The Cardinals beat the Tigers. It's as simple and as complicated as that. I have enormous respect for what Jim Leyland has done with his teams throughout his managerial career. But I don't think for a second that he or his coaches have trained Joel Zumaya to go to third on a grounder back to the pitcher with men on first and second. What the hell was he thinking? You don't see that play in Rookie ball. I don't think you see it in high school varsity. The play in that circumstance is to second base.

The Tigers players, for whatever reason, lost their baseball smarts. I didn't think it could continue, but I suppose once THAT momentum has begun, it's hard to stop. Until the team loses. How much you want to bet that after reminding their pitchers to head toward first on a grounder to the right side, they go over first and second with less than two outs.

Chapter 49.9: Not Your Grandfather's World Series

As a bit of a baseball historian, I appreciate that this is not the first time the Tigers and Cardinals have met in the World Series. In 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, Mickey Lolich won three games -- the last to do so in three starts (Randy Johnson relieved in game 7 of 2001) -- and if he hadn't, Bob Gibson probably would have. That was the final year before divisional playoffs. It was a watershed year in baseball history. Some even mark it as the end of an era.

Of course, that doesn't mean squat right now, as Major League Baseball relishes its mega-millions of ticket sales amid paltry television interest in the actual Fall Classic. Many accuse baseball of selling its soul to corporate interests -- indeed, it seems much of America has done so: politicians, sports, arts & culture. But I think that once we get to game six of this series, we will start to recognize that history is now. Kenny Rogers' tarry palm will be a footnote, much like Roger Clemens' inability to throw a bat barrel as well as he pitches a split-fingered fastball. This Series, which I expected Detroit to run away with, will go the full seven. Though I'm an NL fan rooting for the Tigers, I believe the Cardinals will squeak past them in the final game.

Chapter 49.8: World Serious

I remain hopeful about my Mets. Yes, Oliver Perez is not who I would have envisioned as the team's October savior, but that's what we need him to be today. Well, that's overstating it. We need him to be better than Anthony Reyes and we need the hitters to mollywhop the Cardinals pitchers. ... emphasize pitchers, plural.

Darren Oliver did yeoman's work last night in keeping the rest of the pen rested, but in order for the Mets to have a chance, Perez needs to pitch at least 5, preferably 6 innings today. If it's 7-6 Mets after five, I'd be ok with that if Perez hasn't caused the pen to be overworked.

As for the American League, those Tigers are going to be tough to beat, Mets or Cardinals. Whichever NL team makes it to the World Series, I have to give the cats the advantage. They've got the pitching, they've got offensive power, and their manager is going to have them prepared for whatever confronts them. My initial prediction, subject to revision: World Series Champion Tigers, winning the series four games to one.

Chapter 49.7: Just a Thought

If the Republicans hadn't been hammering the anti-gay message as stringently the past six years or more, would the Mark Foley scandal have been as damaging to them? As the Republicans have been saying since the sexually explicit messages were exposed, a Democratic representative in the 1980s had been accused of at least once having an allegedly inappropriate relationship with a page and didn't pay a price as steep as Foley (and, likely, the GOP). But gays weren't as hot a political potato back then. These days, when same-sex unions are a campaign issue, anything that has any veneer of covert homosexual connotations among politicians apparently is as much a career killer as talking about changing Social Security used to be.

Chapter 49.5: Second Round

I didn't do too well in my predictions; my only correct one was the Mets. But I'm pleased. Obviously, my Mets are my first choice for winning the World Series. And I think they have a better shot against the Cardinals' pitching than the Padres' bullpen. But if their pen had been better, they might still be playing. So throw that out the window. The Mets still have problems ahead because their pitching is as beat up as the Cards' is. But it's likely they'll only face Chris Carpenter once as a starter (though game 7 isn't impossible).

My predictions: Mets 4-2

The ALCS is harder to predict. I didn't expect the A's to respond as well as they did, nor did I expect them to shut down the Twins hitters so effectively. I've not looked at how the Tigers pitchers fared against Oakland during the season, but this has the makings of a great series. Tigers 4-3.

Chapter 49.35: Remember the Maine

Well, I'm not batting too well so far. Santana lost at home for the first time this season. The Padres were beat. The Tigers couldn't do enough, but that's not really a surprise.

Now my Mets are hamstrung. Everything depends on El Duque's calf muscle MRI now. Expecting the worst, I assume he won't be able to pitch during this series, and I think they should retain either lefty Dave Williams or rookie Brian Bannister as the potential fourth starter/long man. I'm also expecting to see John Maine get the start today. I vaguely recall Bob Walk starting game one of the 1980 NLCS for the Phillies, so it's not unprecedented to have a rookie in such a pressure-packed role, and Maine has been solid.

While I'd prefer to have the proven El Duque, I'm hopeful Mr. Maine will give us a performance that Mets fans will look back on fondly for many years.

Chapter 49.3: Second Season

Ok, some quick predictions because I don't have much time:

Mets vs. Dodgers: Mets win series 3-1.
Padres vs. Cardinals: Padres win 3-0.

Twins vs. A's: Twins win 3-0.
Yankees vs. Tigers: Yankees win 3-1.

I think the Mets bullpen will be the star of the early round and probably of the first two rounds. The Dodgers have some fire power and experienced pitching, but I expect to see the Mets bats come alive, as they did against the lowly Nationals. The Dodgers are better than Frank Robinson's team was, but I still think the Mets have what it takes. Look for Guillermo Mota to star.

The Cardinals have been so bad lately, they might lose three straight to the Royals right now. Jake Peavy should take game one against Chris Carpenter, and from there the Cards have virtually nothing to scare a solid, if not spectacular San Diego squad.

In the AL, the A's only shot is to defeat Johan Santana, and he hasn't lost at the Metrodome since he was in diapers. Frank Thomas will hit a couple homers, perhaps, but Moneyball once again won't go too far.

The Tigers pitchers are all good, and if this series were being played in June, I'd take them. But the Tigers staff, except for Kenny Rogers, are basically young kids who've thrown too many innings this year. And no one is afraid of Rogers. And the Tigers don't hit sinker ballers well. Wang will overcome any jitters and set the tone for the rest of that series.