For the rest of you, this is what I'm thinking about when it comes to baseball 2011: Transition.
I think we're going to see a major power shift in the divisions. Let's start in the AL East.
AL East: The Boston Red Sox still have a great pitching staff, but even there the word of the day is transition. This staff isn't about Josh Beckett and it's certainly not about Diasuke Matsuzaka. The question is going to be whether the Cy Young Award goes to Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz. Combine this great staff with an improved lineup — which added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez — and the Sox should be a powerful team.
But now I see a major transition. My sleeper team is the Baltimore Orioles. They played excellent baseball after Buck Showalter arrived in late August. Sure, they had nothing to lose at that point, but they played like they actually wanted their jobs. It's hard to say they're improved enough to actually take the AL Wild Card, but they might be able to keep the Yankees from taking it. I see the Yankees having problems with their starting rotation. Let's face it, the back end of their rotation (Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova) are a has-been and a not-yet. The front end will do fine, but in the mostly improved division, the Yankees bats will need to step up to overcome mediocre starting pitching. The bats are capable, even those that are aging, but this is a team on the decline. And if they fall behind, how long will it be before CC Sabathia's contract status (he can opt for free agency at the end of the season) becomes a distraction?
The Blue Jays have a lot of question marks in their rotation, too, and it'll be interesting to see if new manager John Farrell, the former Red Sox pitching coach, can help put this team on the same page. They have bats, they have arms, but I'm not sure they have enough of either. The Tampa Rays took a major back step. They've still got stars and will be asking them for more productivity, but I don't think they can compete this year.
My picks: Red Sox; Yankees; Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays
AL Central: Here's another area of transition, but this division has been rather flexible the past few years. The Twins still have a solid core, but injuries may have slowed down Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Can a pitching staff that relies heavily on Carl Pavano really continue to thrive? I think the White Sox have improved their lineup and have a strong enough rotation to at least give the Tigers and Twins a run for their money. I like the additions the Tigers have made in their lineup, and this team is still capable of amazing people. The Indians, not so much. Who pitches for this team? The Royals have some amazing talent, but there too it may be too green to flourish in this division.
My picks: White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Indians
AL West: The home of the AL Champion Rangers could be headed for a new leader, and it's not the team you'd expect. It may not be too thin a limb I'm going out on, but I think the A's have the arms to win what has been a remarkably successful division the past ten years despite having such terribly weak teams. The Rangers lost their ace when Cliff Lee departed, and I'm not just sure their revised rotation can handle it. There was a lot of talk of moving stud closer Neftali Feliz to the rotation and if this team starts off poorly, expect that talk to regain momentum. They may struggle to hold off the always tough Angels. But this team is far removed from its world championship in 2002. As for the Mariners, they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez and former MVP Ichiro Suzuki, but not a whole lot more. It's possible Eric Bedard might make a resurgence, but it seems more likely to me that the team will once again languish and come July we'll see them shopping Hernandez and maybe even Ichiro.
My picks: A's, Angels, Rangers, Mariners
Now to the National League.
The NL East. Only a fool would bet against a rotation that consists of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, (an aging but capable) Roy Oswalt, and Joe Blanton. Sure, things could go wrong, there's a lot of age and with age come injuries. But I think the Phillies will start off strong and the league will fall by the wayside. Fredi Gonzalez takes over a changing lineup in Atlanta, where I expect we'll see Chipper's final go-round the league. But this team won 91 games last year and could do so again. They'll have to fight off Gonzalez's former team from Miami. The Marlins keep winning 80-plus games, but I think this year they boost things up a notch. Their pitching staff has talent — not Phillies-level talent, but it'll be interesting to watch. My Mets are a mess, but if new manager Terry Collins can get them moving and keep the team's play in the papers rather than the ridiculous nightmare in their owners' offices, perhaps they can surprise some folks. I'm not holding my breath. The Nationals have made major improvements, but it still comes down to pitching, and they don't have a whole lot, with Stephen Strasburg recuperating.
My picks: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nationals
NL Central: This could get very interesting. In St. Louis we have a potential problem as the Albert Pujols contract watch will continue throughout the season. The Reds, last year's surprise, are losing pitchers by the day. The Cubs still have personality conflicts to resolve in the clubhouse. The Astros have little hitting and the Pirates have little of anything (though I think Clint Hurdle will find a way to make some magic happen.) Almost by default, I think the Brewers, which improved themselves by acquiring former Cy Young Award Zack Greinke, are ready to take control.
My picks: Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros
NL West: The World Champion Giants look pretty much like the team that took it all last year, and that's ok, but when other teams improve, it's tough to keep winning when you're standing pat. The question, then, is how well have the Colorado Rockies improved? I think it's enough. They already have a surprisingly decent pitching staff and a powerful offense. But the Giants GM, Brian Sabean, has never been one to stand pat for too long. So I think it will be interesting to see how this division progresses throughout the season. It'll also be interesting to see how Don Mattingly fares as a manager. Usually, teams like to shift managerial styles when changing who heads the team, but Joe Torre retired, so the circumstances are a bit different. Still, the Dodgers were an underachieving team and I can't help but wonder if they need more of a fire-breather to get them going. The Padres, who fought the Giants to the wire last year, have fallen far and I wonder if Buddy Black will be packing his bags soon. And the Diamondbacks will need to show they can pitch.
My picks: Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks.
Wild Cards: Rockies, Twins
Playoffs:
AL: Red Sox defeat Twins; A's defeat White Sox
NL: Phillies defeat Rockies; Giants defeat Brewers
ALCS: Red Sox defeat A's
NLCS: Phillies defeat Giants
World Series: Phillies in 6
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