Chapter 31.6: Giving the Man What He Wants?

The terrible tragedy in Glendale, Calif., troubles me. The initial reports portray a suicidal man who decided to save himself, yet in the process he allegedly showed reckless disregard for everyone on the train. The man is rightfully being held responsible for the (at least) 11 deaths he caused and the couple hundred injuries he inflicted upon a train full of innocents.

The charges this man face make him eligible for the death penalty. I doubt the man will ever make it to trial, much less death row if convicted; he'll likely kill himself first.

The rest of us are left without a clue what the incident means. It would have been just as tragic if he'd stayed in the SUV; he'd be just as dead. Are we to expect some answers from this disturbed man? Will it mean more for his family that instead of killing himself, he killed others and effectively doomed himself? I doubt the usual "we're paying for his trial" argument holds much water, because there'd be investigations and trials regardless of whether he had died in the SUV.

In a way it's almost as tragic as the tsunami, though that horrifying event washed away so much more life that comparisons are hard to draw between the two. The man in the SUV made a couple of conscious, unconscionable choices. If we have learned anything from the tsunami, it is that how we respond matters. That is where the train tragedy leaves me troubled. To me, it's almost like a suicide bomber chickening out but leaving his death vest behind to do its terrible deed. The former teacher in me wants to decry the act, but not the actor -- yet the actor is at fault. It's events like this that strain my ability to care.

Chapter 31.5: Deadlines Approaching

Well, at close of writing tonight, I've hit 334 pages. I like that number; it's like an excellent batting average. I also crept over 100,000 words, which I can't concern myself over yet; there's too much still to write. The next chapter, sequentially, is one of the key chapters in the book, so I might hold off till Saturday to write that one (and move past it for now). I'll have more time and probably more energy. It's a crucial confrontation between father and daughter.

There are other deadlines I'll meet this weekend as well, and I'll need to spend some time in the library. But I still feel good. Calm before the storm? Who cares. I've got work to complete, and I've wasted enough time speculating on the future.

Chapter 31.45: Impassive About the Nominations

Just a quick comment: I'm not overly surprised that the Motion Picture Academy neglected to nominate The Passion of the Christ for any of the most significant nominations it might have received (best picture, best director, best actor). I'm a little surprised it wasn't at least given a nod in best foreign language film, but I don't follow foreign films, so those five might be very deserving.

The movie did not surprise me either, as my Catholic background pretty well indoctrinated me to the beating that Jesus received at the hands of the Romans. It was intense, certainly, but it included much of what I knew from the gospels.

This film snub will likely annoy people, which we'll hear about in the news today, then again around Easter. But the MPA's impassivity strikes me as predictable.

Chapter 31.3: Did You Hear That? Another Candidate Dropped a Hat

Well, Hillary Clinton is all but officially running, staking a claim on the fence between religious voters and women voters. Her position of finding a middle ground between abortion rights and women's right to choose might sound politically sensible, and indeed it might become the winning stance for Democrats, but there will be repurcussions.

I think the realm of "political religion" is as murky as the creme brulle surface of the moon Titan, and probably smells just as bad. Perhaps it will prove Sen. Clinton is willing to tackle tough issues, but why do I feel she'll be backpeddling within a year?

Chapter 31: The Big Dig-Out

The weather this weekend was awful and beautiful. Amid a dead car battery, a violently beaten alarm clock, and a forgotten electric snow shovel (I hesitate to call it a snow blower, but it'll be fine once I remember it exists), the weekend was not what I'd hoped for. Now it's off to work.

A foot or so of snow fell upon our sleepy suburban town this weekend, screwing up (but not altogether cancelling) plans for a Robert Burns Supper on Saturday night -- despite a declared state of emergency. More sleepy in the morning, I was late for a 7:00 a.m. appointment. But the day eventually took shape.

Chalk up the (first?) Blizzard of 2005 to the history drift.

Chapter 30.8: Keeping Options Open

If John Kerry does indeed vote against our future Sec. of State, I think it's another indication that he's seriously considering running for president again in 2008. It would seem that he's learned his lesson of appearing to support the war by voting to authorize funding. By voting against Rice, who reportedly parroted much of President Bush's stances throughout her confirmation hearing, Sen. Kerry can legitimately claim his opposition to the administration's Iraq policy in the president's second term. Of course, there's a lot more living to come before anyone declares their candidacy. But coupled with Sen. Kerry's trip to Iraq at the beginning of the month (while a fellow senator challenged the electoral college vote), I think any speculation about his intentions to run would be well founded.

He certainly won't be the only one. I'm intrigued by the positioning of Vice President Cheney, who has gotten more involved in domestic policy (www.nytimes.com -- a story that appeared on 1/18/05). I find it hard to believe a monotonous speaker who's had several heart attacks might actually consider running for president, but he's got proven ability and credibility. Some might argue he's already proven he can do the job. I expect Sen. John McCain will decide he's too old to run in 2008, but that's obviously his decision to make. And Even Newt Gingrich's name has appeared in the news more often in the past month than I noticed perhaps in the year prior.

The game is afoot.

Chapter 30.6: More progress

I doubt any of the few readers who come here -- and who aren't family members -- actually care about the progress of my novel. But it matters to me, of course, so if I feel like mentioning it then I will.

That said, as of last night I have written 312 pages. I intend to put in another 5-7 tonight; hopefully I'll get as many as 15 the rest of this weekend. If the 16 chapter I have left to write (total of 71) average about 5-7 pages each, then that's 80-112 pages left. To me, that's a light at the end of the tunnel. When I reach that light, I'll see several weeks of revision, re-reading, more revision, and a lot of cutting. In other words, the light at the end of the tunnel just shows how much work is left to do -- though it'll feel good to get out of the tight space. The temptation will be to add to the book -- develop the characters even more, make the various settings smell, sound, and taste different. If that description isn't already there, I'll need to do a lot more work, but it won't be through adding more pages.

Right now I've got 94,000 words-plus. Ideally, I'd like this book to be no more than 100,000 words, and preferably closer to 90,000. In other words I've got significant cutting to do already. Some of the scenes may need to be removed entirely. In fact, it's likely to happen. Stephen King's book "On Writing" suggests a rule of thumb for revision: "first draft - 10 percent." That sounds like sage advice, and I will use it as a guide. In my case, it could be closer to 15 percent that I cut. But I'll get there when I get there.

Why am I boring anyone with this entry in the first place? I'd like to think that an aspiring writer might be able to pick up a point or two on the process of writing a novel from a person who is struggling through it. In my case, this book has been in my mind now for about 10 years, though I've only actively pursued it since early 2002. Last year I made the most progress, overhauling the entire book, literally going back to Chapter 1 and removing what I could tell didn't matter. It also meant that my original Chapter 1 became chapters 1-5, with elements of another chapter or two not in succession. Entire passages of 30 pages became background fodder, concised into a paragraph or two, or simply relegated to a dusty floppy disk with a note on the label: "backstory removed."

More progress came this past fall when I actually planned the rest of the book, rather than following my intent of "seeing where the characters take me." What a load of crap that was! Where the characters were taking me was an insane asylum because I wasn't getting anywhere. Truth be told, the planning allowed me to see where the characters were going. In the writing, things changed. For instance, two chapters became one; it just made more sense that way.

My advice for an aspiring writer, however, would be to go to the library, get a good book on writing (the aforementioned "On Writing" is approachable), and read it through. The tools are all there. Get to work.

Chapter 30.5: New Sun Rising?

I hestitate to write this; by putting the words out there, I fear it could jinx the chance. I sense a shift in New York sports.

It's not simply that the Mets have signed Carlos Beltran, the premier free agent of the off-season. They have also signalled a dramatic change in how to approach certain players. The Mets now have an advantage no team has ever held: They have an Hispanic general manager and lots of money. This has clearly been a plus in negotiating with Pedro Martinez and Beltran. Now they have their sights set on Carlos Delgado, another potential Hall of Famer (he's about 165 home runs away from 500, so it's not impossible, though unlikely at his age.)

I wonder when the rest of Major League Baseball will pick up on this distinction between the Mets and everyone else. Omar Minaya ran the Montreal Expos for the past several years, but he didn't have money to spend there. In this baseball market place, that's a problem. But a team like the Texas Rangers or the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim (their name change just smacks of a marketing consultant gone nuts) have built in markets to develop. The number of Hispanics who already play for the Rangers is a good start. The Angels are owned by an Hispanic. And the Washington Nationals (formerly Expos) have opportunities with Tony Tavares in place as president of the club. But no one is doing it like Minaya.

Personally, if he's going to sign Delgado, I'd like to see him pick up John Olerud as a back up. But I'll let him make that decision. He seems to be doing a good job so far.

On top of all this, I sense the Yankees are having problems. Even when they make a no-brainer of a signing (in this case Randy Johnson) it blows up in their faces. He was photographed on the sidewalk yesterday by a professional photojournalist, and The Big Unit stuck out his beefy palm and said, "Get out of my face." In today's dueling press conferences, I can almost guarantee his accosting a photographer will be a major line of questioning for the new acquisition, whose presence on the Yankees roster has been anticipated for months. They need new news, and he just gave it to them. I know he apologized right after it happened. He's going to be asked about it, and he's not going to like it. And he'll probably get a little POd about it. Then, if he's not careful, he'll make a comment that will haunt him all season and perhaps throughout his contract. Reporters will question his ability to handle a cranky media -- not his obvious talents as a definite Hall of Fame pitcher. Welcome to the big city Big Unit. You're 6'10" and this town's reporters have never had a bigger baseball target.

Chapter 30.45: Take the 7 Train to the Beltran

The Mets got Beltran! This should be one of the greatest acquisitions in the team’s history. Perhaps he’s not the player that Alex Rodriguez is, because A-Rod can hit for average as well as for power and used to play a position that is a bit more skills-oriented than center field (not to take anything away from center field, which is the key outfield position). But I think the acquisition of A-Rod would have altered the Mets in an unfavorable manner. You hear rumblings of that with the Yankees.

Beltran sounds like more of a team player, which should work on the Mets. I’ve said that I don’t think the Mets will win the division and I still believe that. I think they’ll fight for second place, but end up in third. Perhaps they’ll be killed by former teammate Al Leiter, whose Marlins should be able to take second, I think. The division is not overly strong, but I expect the Braves to take it once more.

Yet, the Beltran deal puts the division and the league on notice: The Mets are really trying.

Chapter 30.4: Thanks For Trying

I'm sure we all knew no election change would come from the rare decision by a senator to contest the electoral certification of President Bush's victory, but I'm glad Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., did it. Of course, if there was ever a time it should have been done it was four years ago, but that's ancient history now.

The repercussions of Sen. Boxer's objection, however, will be interesting to watch. I was also intrigued by Sen. Kerry's obviously purposeful absence. He's reportedly in Iraq. Should it be interpreted as his first step toward running again in 2008? Was he aware of Boxer's impending objection and he chose to be out of town? I don't know. But I don't think it was an idle decision.

Politics as usual in 21st century America.

Chapter 30.2: Premature Prediction

I know it's more than six weeks before the voluntary report date for Mets pitchers and catchers, but I'm going to toss out a couple predictions. First: Carlos Beltran will be a Met. I didn't think this was possible weeks ago, but with the apparent acquisition of Randy Johnson, the Yankees might not be able to afford yet another astronomical salary and source of future luxury taxes, so I think they'll pass on Beltran. Perhaps they've already got too many Boras clients (considering Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams and probably other obvious ones I'm forgetting). But they paid about $25 million in luxury tax last year, which is more than what the Tampa Bay Devil Rays paid their entire roster. With the addition of the Big Unit and the increased percentage they know they'll be liable for, the likelihood of structuring a contract with Beltran that alleviates their problem is low.

The Mets reportedly offered Beltran $100 million over six years, which is about $4 million more than the reported offer by the Houston Astros, where Beltran finished the 2004 season. I think the Mets offer will go up, but at this point who are they bidding against?

Second: Pedro Martinez will win his 200th game. That's a bold prediction because he's 18 away right now. With Beltran, however, I think the entire lineup will be better. I expect the Mets to sign John Olerud to stabilize the infield if they get Beltran. They needed a big bopper out of one of their remaining holes, which Beltran would achieve. Olerud's older now than in his hey day, but if all he can do is hit .245 and play his usual excellent first base, then he's worth it. Bat him seventh if we have to.

Third: Tom Glavine will be the comeback player of the year. Harder one to achieve, because he wasn't bad for the first half of 2004. He was an all-star, after all, and he didn't have to be picked; Mike Piazza was voted onto the team. My point is that with Pedro manning the ace slot, Glavine will face slightly lower caliber pitchers, have an improved infield and outfield defense behind him, and is smart enough to overcome what he may be losing in velocity. I think between Pedro and Glavine the Mets should get 34-35 wins. I hope you can tack on another 12-15 each out of Benson, Trachsel, and even Zambrano. Conservatively that's 70 wins. It's not great, and even with another 15 potential wins out of the bullpen, you're not talking a likely playoff team. But it's an improvement.

I think three predictions is fair for now, except to say that I think third is where they're going to end up. Could the revamped Mets contend for a wild card? Yes, with Beltran. In fact all these predictions are assuming Beltran is a Met. That hasn't happened yet. But it's nice to dream.

Chapter 30: Happy New Year

I have entered 2005 with optimism. I accomplished one modified goal -- my novel has reached 300 pages, and the end is in view. Despite a crummy day on Sunday that included an unexpected confrontation that may recur later this week, I remain positive about the month and the year ahead.

Ten years ago was the last time I went into a year with such optimism, and that was due to a personal fiction. One of the songs I wrote and performed in the early 1990s included a line: "only $19.95," which obviously referred to a price. (I won't bore those few readers I might have with the song's details.) When I wrote the song, however, back in the late '80s, that line always felt like a precursor to the year 1995, which is what I mean by 'personal fiction.'

I remember bumping into an old friend at my favorite Hoboken bar, Fabian's (which no longer exists) a day or two before new year's eve. We talked about the upcoming 1995 and our expectations of it. I reminded my friend of the song (which he knew) and predicted that something good was going to happen to me that year -- after a mostly dismal 1994. Sure enough, by the end of the year I was getting ready for married life.

A decade later, I enter the year full of hope after much despair. This year will be different. I hope yours is too.