Chapter 54.07: Resolve and Reserve

I'm one of those who makes resolutions -- or rather, I set goals. Sometimes I achieve them (for example, I intended to read at least two books a month on average, and I came close to doubling that goal), sometimes I fail (e.g., finishing the latest re-draft of my novel).

I have resolutions already -- which I don't need to go into here. But I think the resolution that makes the most sense is to be safe. This year has been pretty good for me -- busy but successful. But looking at these final days, I'm seeing ominous signs for the new year. This morning, I was on a first aid call for an attempted suicide. Not a pretty scene. Then I found out that a friend of mine lost her home yesterday in a fire. I don't know whether these will be blessings in the guise of grief, but I have a feeling that 2007 will be a year of tumultuous change. I pray it is a safe one for us all.

Chapter 54: A Night at the Museum

We just got back from a fun night at the movies, and despite it costing about $30 for the tickets and jumbo popcorn/soda, I'd say it was worth the price of admission. While I don't expect A Night at the Museum to win any major awards, it had me chuckling and occasionally even laughing. The 12 year olds in the theater with us were often guffawing, so that may give you an idea of who the target audience is, but the story was fun for adults too.

The basic idea is that Larry Daly (played by Ben Stiller) is a divorced dad in need of a stable life. While he's always had aspirations of greatness, he rarely has been able to achieve anything of much note. He gets a job as the night watchman at the Museum of Natural History and soon learns that at night, history comes alive -- literally. The hi-jinks are somewhat predicatable but that's ok, this isn't trying to be Schindler's List. And Larry's often bailed out by Teddy Roosevelt (played by Robin Williams).

The problem is, the three former night watchmen, who lost their jobs due to downsizing (and perhaps because they're all around 85 years old) are trying to steal a magic tablet that is the reason all the exhibits come to life at night. It keeps the night watchmen young too. Larry becomes a leader as he gathers all the exhibits together to help him catch the somewhat-bad guys (Dick Van Dyke, Bill Cobbs, and the eternally annoying Mickey Rooney). And in saving the tablet, Larry also saves the museum (and his own job).

There are some serious problems with the film's continuity (e.g., how does the museum director, played by Ricky Gervais, notice the Roman centurion in the stockades but doesn't notice that one of the Neanderthals is missing?), but the premise of the story felt fresh and fun. Enjoy.

Chapter 53.8: Who Knew?

I had no idea Ethiopia had armed services powerful enough to rout the Islamist fighters. If today's developmentsin Somalia are to be believed, I can't help but wonder why we were unable to control things in Mogadishu in the early 1990s.

Chapter 53.74: Remembering Jerry

Though I never met former President Gerald Ford, I saw him up close once. While covering the Presidents' Summit in 1997, I was standing by myself -- almost entirely -- on a path in Philadelphia. I think the event took place near Independence Hall. Suddenly, several serious and official looking men walked along the path and said to stand aside. Then President Ford walked past -- looking rather robust for a man in his early 80s. That was it. Looking back, that's the closest I've ever been to a former (or current) president, even though I've seen several of them speak before large gatherings of conference-goers.

Chapter 53.5: A Child's Christmas As a Cat

With all the travel we'll have over the next couple of days, we decided to celebrate Christmas at home this morning. Though the cat usually wakes us up early, he seems to have started to understand Saturday means the humans stay in bed. So he wasn't as concerned as he often is, making sure that I get to my train on time. But he did seem curious about the presents under the tree -- some of which were for him.

I got out of bed around 9 or so and fed him and started some coffee, but his petulant mewing told me he wanted more. So I started to toss mice around. He loves this. It's his time to run and pounce and play. I enjoy it too -- as long as he's not gnawing on my heels. Seeing him zip from room to room, bounce the mice around like a basketball or swat at them like soccer balls makes me long for coaching sports.

Though he's a housecat, Riley loves the great outdoors -- the backyard is as far as we let him roam, and always on a leash. But during the winter (even as mild as this one has begun), he doesn't have the same number of visual stimuli as the spring or summer. Fewer birds, the squirrels are preoccupied, and the grass isn't as tasty as new spring shoots. Once the wife was up and I'd scrambled the eggs, it was time to open the presents -- including those for the cat. I got him a DVD of Swan Lake -- rather swans on a pond. There's birdsong and trilling insects in the background. It will entertain him while my wife works or if we're out for a couple hours -- as will the new mice we gave him and the stuffed cat that mews like it needs to be fed.

So Merry Cat Christmas, Riley. I hope you enjoyed it. Now if you could only learn how to clean your box by yourself.

Chapter 53.33: Earworms

This morning I woke up with an odd earworm digging through my brain. You know what an earworm is: that song that keeps playing in your mind. You can't shake it easily, and like the old fable about ridding the city of mice, anything you use to change songs immediately becomes a new problem.

This morning, I awoke with a song by Tom Lehrer -- the 1960s musical satirist and math professor -- called "The Folk Song Army." Only, it wasn't the entire song; I could only remember lines. It was bad enough to have a song in my head, but worse still to not remember it properly. So I tried to push it out with Christmas tunes. Bad idea! I soon was whistling "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas" and "It's Beginning to Look Like Christmas." It wouldn't stop.

Of course, now that I've brought this topic back up, I have songs running through my head. This is not what I intended.

Chapter 53.3: Bah Humbug!

No, that's too strong, 'cause it is my favorite holiday.

It is beginning to feel a smidgen like Christmas. Perhaps it's the chill in the air or the news that Santa got waylaid somewhere over Denver and had to stop his time bending trip preparations with a layover in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Or maybe it's because I saw a small flake flash before my wandering eyes this morning as I got out of the PATH train station. Maybe it wasn't snow. Maybe it was a piece of windblown crud.

Or maybe it's because I'm about to get my Christmas wish: a couple hours off from work -- well, a few days, actually. But with the travel to see my loved ones and rip open a few presents and toss back a few beers, it'll feel almost like work. Almost. I'll have Tuesday.

No, what I'm looking forward to doing is mapping out a week of winter vacation to do whatever I want to do. At home. Cooking breakfast for my wife after making her late to her office (which is just a room away). Jogging more than 20 miles in a week -- in sunlight. And working on the novel. If I can finish the revisions in a week, it could be the second best vacation of my life -- after the one where I proposed to my wife, of course. At least I'd have an idea of how much work is needed. Then I could use my train commute to sketch out the next book or evaluate literary agents. That's work too, but it's future-focused work.

I'm reading Book Doctor on the train this week, by Esther Cohen. Funny. Some wonderful scenes and playful characters. Not as good as Ward Just's An Unfinished Season, which I finished earlier this week, but it moves along at a comfortable pace. I find myself wishing I knew someone like Arlette Rosen, the lead character in Book Doctor, who devises clever exercises to help writers see their characters and the focus of their books more clearly. I know what I'm writing; making it compelling seems to be my battle.

So I need another vacation. That's what I'm asking Santa for Christmas. Oh yeah, and an iPod.

Chapter 53.22: Winter Night

At some point soon -- either today or tomorrow, I've heard disputing reports -- winter begins. I believe it's today at 7:22 a.m. Regardless, the winter solstice is the shortest day (or the longest night depending on your perspective) of the year. Since I was curious, I poked around and found this site, which I find interesting. It talks about the solstice but also goes into some detail about Newgrange in Ireland. It's an incredible place to see, though I prefer a spring day when the weather's warmer.

Enjoy your winter, friends and readers. May the days grow longer.

Chapter 53: Looking to 2007

Throughout the year, I've had many friends and acquaintances ask how I'm progressing on my novel. With few exceptions, the answer has been, "I've barely touched it lately." That remains true right now. I've had self-appointed deadlines that have passed by barely noticed. And the latest is fast approaching and will likely be met with similar results. Life has just gotten too darn busy.

Although there's no one with an ax over my neck to inspire me to get back to the book, I pledge to get what I hope will be my final pre-agenting draft complete before the end of March. I'll take a week off from work to get it into gear if I have to; it'll probably take that kind of decision.

And once that version is done and I start looking into getting an agent to sell my book, then I'll start on the next novel. Again, it'll be difficult to stay to my schedule, but I'd like to think that having a new project to work on will be the creative kick in the butt that I need. There's still a lot of research I need to do on that one to make sure some of the settings are believable, but I can start to write the character development, which is really the heart of any story. All in all, it should be a busy 2007, especially if I do what I am setting out to do.

Chapter 52.8: Skeeter Control

There's a story from the Raleigh News & Observer about an effort to keep mosquitoes from infecting people with diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and other horrible maladies that humans have suffered and died from for millennia. But I can't help wondering if we know whether or not such transfer of contagions somehow help humans evolve also. I don't mean that in the "natural selection" sense that the people who died were fated to die, but more in the "part of God's plan" idea that perhaps humans also receive a benefit from battling the evil in their bloodstream. I don't pretend to have answers, and I've only skimmed the story, but it caught my attention.

Chapter 52.5: Evil Dead, the Musical

My wife and I had an unexpectedly pleasant Off-Broadway theater experience recently -- Evil Dead, the Musical.

Better than the films (which isn't saying much), the play is actually a mixture of all three Evil Dead movies (well, primarily the first two with references to the third that perhaps only the cognoscenti would get).

Vulgar and campy to be sure, and a little sticky. The songs actually stick with you too, but how can anyone forget lyrics like "What the fuck was that!" in the song "What the F@%$"

Not a musical for children (or perhaps the perfect demograhic is an 11 year old boy) because the language and the occasional dry-humping, etc. is clearly R-rated. In the first act, the sister of the hero is the first person to become possessed by the evilness that has been unleashed by reading chants from the Necronomicon (Book of the Dead). She eventually causes all the rest of the characters to be possessed at one time or another.

There's an enjoyable dance of the dead scene called "Do the Necronomicon" with passing references not only to the Time Warp from Rocky Horror but also Fonzie from Happy Days.

Before the second act, the first three rows of seats (where we were sitting) get baggies with clear plastic ponchos. The fake blood really flows in the climatic killing spree toward the end. It's so bad that you can't help but laugh.

I probably wouldn't pay more than the special $26 ticket for the show, but I recommend getting the splatter zone to enjoy the whole experience.

Chapter 52.4: The Need for Failure

This is a topic that I'll expand upon, but I believe that the emergence of reality television over the past several years is one of the chief reasons that television writing has suffered. Sure there are well written successful new shows, some of which I enjoy immensely such as Medium, Jericho, Heroes, and even Eureka on SciFi. But I wonder if actors are being allowed to fail on middling shows, from which they'll emerge in the future as better actors.

I blame reality television for this because there are only so many slots for new primetime shows, and with Americans gravitating to game shows like Deal or No Deal and glorified audition tapes like American Idol, we're losing out on the season or two of something else where tomorrow's next superstar cut her teeth.

The irony is that Survivor, the granddaddy of 21st century reality television, arose from the ashes of a Screen Actors Guild strike. And the television set hasn't been the same since.

I suspect many TV viewers would disagree with me. Reality television is incredibly popular, and it's even easier for production companies to sell more advertising with product placements (though using a brand of worms for the gross-out shows was a missed selling opportunity, if you ask me). So, in the mode of giving the customers what they want, perhaps it's a case of no harm no foul. But then I watch a show like SciFi Investigates (which sucks) and see reality show alum Rob Mariano and I realize that it's just another example of a no-talent wannabe taking a job away from someone who's paid his or her dues. He's the most qualified "skeptic" they could find? What a crock!

Reality television is taking jobs away from actors and writers.

Good television shows are still being written, but the average shows are being shelved. That's what's missing. We're getting middling reality shows of people we'd not talk to at a bar if they bought us a drink instead of allowing people with talent and dreams to get somewhere with their lives.

Chapter 52.1: Illuminating

The story about the Russian spy who ingested a radioactive isotope is fascinating -- in a John LeCarre novel kind of way. Among my thoughts is whether the reason he was given this material was not only to kill him but also to see where he went after he ingested it. A radioactive marker. I also read that his body will be kept in an airtight container and not allowed to be cremated for 22 years. Some murderers have no heart.

Chapter 52: Smoking Gun on Health Insurance

If a story from the Boston Globe is to be believed, then at least one company is on the way to destroying health insurance in America. Lawncare giant, Scott's, apparently has a policy that precludes any employee from smoking -- including off the job. Why are they acting as Big Brother? I can only surmise that they know what smoking does for the health of an employee and they don't want to pay for a smoker's health care, especially as they get older and the problems persist.

I'm not in favor of smoking, but I'm less in favor of legislating a person's private life. If the company is allowed to maintain such draconian policies, the measures will be replicated elsewhere. There's no telling where such actions would stop. Do you eat eggs? Well, you can't anymore because the cholesterol contributes to heart disease. Work somewhere else? It's not our problem no one else will hire you either. If that's Scott's policy, then they should simply not offer health coverage at all. Then, only employees who can afford to self-insure would work there. Competitive disadvantage? Of course, but that's they're bed. If smoking were illegal, that would be a different story. Drinking alcohol is legal, but driving while intoxicated isn't, and if I were to do that and get caught, an employer has a right to be concerned. But I wouldn't want to work for a company that is dictating my legal actions outside of the office.

Chapter 51.7: Kids in the Hall

It's Hall of Fame voting time again. (No, I don't have a vote.) This year's three big new names are Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, and Mark McGwire. Gwynn and Ripken are obvious HOFers, so I won't even belabor that debate. And McGwire, well, that's something else entirely. Given what's been mentioned on the radio and online lately, a lot of voters have decided to leave him off their ballots -- quite possibly enough to deny him election this year. Fair play. But will that happen next year too? Is he now forever left in the background because of the unproven (but likely) accusations of using enhancements? Time will tell, and it will speak loudly. Personally, I think voters eventually will acquiesce and vote him into the Hall and others will decry it as hypocrisy.

On another issue, I'd like to throw out these names for the Hall of Almost Famous: Jim Rice, Goose Gossage, Bret Saberhagen. (There are others too.) In my opinion, Rice was a great hitter and deserves enshrinement. Gossage too, because he helped change the role of relievers. But I don't think either will get in. Rice's numbers were short of most of the major metrics (e.g., 500 HRs, 3,000 hits, 1,500 RBI) and reportedly his attitude annoyed the writers who vote at this point, but he came darn close last year so perhaps there's hope. Goose? It's a harder sell. No one seems to remember that after he left the Yankees -- well, at least after the Padres -- he became just another reliever. Other than his final year (with Seattle!) he hadn't finished more than half the games he pitched; this man was not a closer the final seven years of his long career. But he had several years as one of the best. Of course, his time with the Yankees is his claim to fame, and while he was the most feared reliever at that time, I'm not sure he kept that status long enough for enshrinement. The man wasn't Mariano, whose eventual enshrinement is a foregone conclusion. Saberhagen? Excellent for a few seasons (two Cy Young awards), but not otherwise close to enshrinment. He just didn't have it for long enough to deserve it.

Just another guy whose baseball card is worth a few pennies more than the common player.

Chapter 51.5: Memories (Context Is Everything)

Went to my high school reunion last night. For most of these people, I'd not seen them in decades. I haven't missed most of them either -- nor have they missed me. On countless faces, I saw the look of "who is that guy?" and it's not just because I've grown a beard since then. I was a face in the hallway for dozens of these people -- mostly the girls, for whom I was neither popular enough to care about nor good looking enough to go out of their way to know. I felt a little puerile not speaking with some of them this weekend. After all, it's been many years. But I hadn't liked their type then and if for only one night, they were those kids I didn't like all over again.

Some of my old friends had forgotten things or conveniently decided not to let them back into a conversation. That's fine. I understand. Many of us remember where the land mines are placed. And not every person believes an experience is for learning.

But things were still different. I'm a happily married man who doesn't need the approval of my classmates. And some of the kids I had secretly detested were nice, upstanding parents now. We had conversations. No promises of keeping in touch or anything fake like that. Just being friendly. Like someone I'd meet at the train station. And when my stop arrives, I'll do what I have to do and move along.

Chapter 51.4: The Bird

Another turkey come and gone. It was a pleasant day, despite the weather. No turkey bowl, but lots of turkey and several bowls. Now people are leaving. And the holiday season has officially begun. Safe home.

Chapter 51.2: Most Deserved Awards

I'm pleased to see the voters did what was right, once again. No, I'm not talking about America's voters and the Democratic victories in the House and Senate. I mean the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards. Despite my hopes for Carlos Beltran becoming the first Met to take the award, Ryan Howard was a lock. He earned that award in the batter's box, no question about it. But he's a butcher in the field. However, fielding doesn't hurt you in this voting -- as long as you do it (not many designated hitters win the award) -- it can only help you.

Around my part of the country, it seemed most baseball fans expected Derek Jeter to take the AL MVP, and he had an excellent season. But Justin Morneau (.321, 34 homers, 130 RBI) was an enormous part of their Central Division championship. I'm well aware that Joe Mauer was the batting champ, but clearly the Canadian-born Morneau was the offensive firepower on the Twins.

I have no problem with Johan Santana taking his second AL Cy Young award, but I'm not sure if anyone should have won in the National League. I suppose Brandon Webb was the best pitcher over the entire season, but no NL hurler was really great. This was the worst season for pitching in the National League in a generation.

Chapter 51: Turkey Week

The Christmas commercials have begun, the temperature's been in the 60s recently, and the house is undergoing its annual makeover. That's right, it's Thanksgiving time again!

This year isn't any more special than previous years, but it'll be crowded. And not everyone will be in our tiny home in our tiny town. But the basement's ready for bumper pool and beer. If the weather holds up, we'll have a Turkey Bowl ("sponsored" by Bass Ale). And we've eaten enough food from Shop-Rite to qualify for the free frozen turkey.

I'm sure it'll all work out fine, but I'm almost looking forward to getting back to work in a week.

Chapter 50.9: Duck Season

Bruce Reed posted an interesting piece in Slate, where he discusses President Bush's lame duck status. He concludes that the president should learn from what the "Governator" learned in California: be more Democratic. While many would scoff at the notion of President Bush acting like a Democrat, perhaps they've forgotten that pre-9/11 many of his initiatives had that tone to them, including the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives. Most of those efforts were not only derided by the conservatives he rode into Washington on, they were also back-burnered after the nation went to war.

Chapter 50.8: Where Is Everybody?

Another one bites the dust before the dust from the midterm elections has settled. Mark Feingold has decided not to run for president in 2008. Mark Warner has done the same, and it seems unlikely (though not impossible) for George Allen to run -- of course, having lost in a re-election bid doesn't bode too well for the future.

It's still somewhat early. I've heard rumors that Al Gore has put together his old team, but I've not confirmed that with any sources, and I wouldn't trust a Web site by itself. Personally, I'm not sure that really strikes me as a good thing either.

Obviously, the parties aren't giving up, but candidates from both sides have been falling by the wayside. McCain's all but said he's running, everyone assumes Hillary is running. And questions remain about whether Giuliani is going to run. In the meantime, there's actually a country to run.

I'm looking forward to seeing what will happen during the first few months of the new congress. That's when any governing will happen. It'll be nice to see if someone comes as a leader out of the congress.

Chapter 50.7: Ed Bradley

Although I never met the man, I always felt I could get along with Ed Bradley. He was an excellent reporter, strong interviewer, and I had the sense that I could trust what he was telling me. I'd have loved to work with him on stories. Alas, that'll never happen.

I was sad and surprised to hear of his death. I'd seen a snippet of one of his recent interviews, and he looked gaunt. Though I didn't know he was ill, he certainly looked the part. Hopefully he didn't suffer for long. He will be missed.

Chapter 50.5: Mission Not Yet Accomplished

For many Democrats, the victories that will give the party control of the House and its apparent victory in the Senate, taste like dessert after six years of humiliating losses. And today's announcement of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld's resignation seems like the cherry on top.

But I believe the honeymoon will not last too long. If comments like those of Howard Dean and even Rahm Emanuel are any guide, voters expecting an announcement of troop withdrawals in the near future will be sorely mistaken. During his color (blue) commentary on CNN, Paul Begala spoke of how control of the House will enable Democrats to provide "oversight" on the progress of the war. Oversight? The only oversight most voters are willing to accept is that Democrats will "forget" to find a significant committee chair in the Senate for John Kerry.

Personally, I suspect both Dean and Begala and others are correct and the campaign vitriol will subside. With the election over and Rummy sipping margaritas on spring break, Democrats will search for a face-saving way of not pulling out of the war (and let's face it, doing so too quickly would be a tragic, irresponsible mistake). Depending on how change happens, it will clearly have ramifications for the run for the White House -- not only regarding who wins, but who runs.

As a self-avowed (moderate) Democrat, I believe it's significant that the party won yesterday. But we should no more fly "mission accomplished" signs in Congress or over state houses than President Bush should have landed on an aircraft carrier hoisting a similar message. The mission has just begun. Let's see some honest politicians for a change

Chapter 50.4: Vote Early, Vote Often

It's here, and the pressing question is whether it will be more popular than this year's World Series. That's right, it's midterm Election Day.

Overheard on the street this morning: a homeless man stopped a gentleman on the street. "Excuse me," said the gruff looking guy. "What day is it today?"

The man heading off to work said, "November 7th."

"Is it a holiday?"

"No. It's Election Day."

"Oh," the homeless man replied. And I heard no more.

Chapter 50.35: If Anyone Cares

For those few people who actually read this blog, if you're wondering my opinion on the very tight NJ Senatorial race, I think Sen. Menendez will win. However, I think Tom Kean Jr. has shown himself to be not only a strong candidate but potent enough to run for other roles in the future. He might even be able to unseat Sen. Lautenberg in a couple years or run for his father's old job in 2009.

Chapter 50.3: Slapdash Prediction

Guess what, there's an election tomorrow! I played around with the election map on the New York Times site. Based on what I was thinking at the time (and since I don't live in Missouri or Montana, I can't say I really know a darn thing), I plugged in who I thought was going to win. The results: 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and Joe Lieberman as an Independent, which means the Republicans would keep control of that house of Congress. I didn't have time to plug and play with all the up-for-grabs House races, but I'm thinking the Democrats will take a small majority there. Enough to save face in this mid-term fracas. May we live in interesting times.

Chapter 50.25: Eight More Weeks!

I'm facing a deadline. I told myself that I'd have my novel revised by the end of the year so I could show it to a young director who wants to consider it for a future film project. While I like the idea of the story being put to film, I'm not sure this is the time to start working on a screenplay. Yet, I need to revise the book for myself, too. I want to move on my second novel and also start searching for an agent. That's not a task I will take lightly, as there are too many sketchy characters working in the field. But I won't find anyone worth my time if I don't have a book worth a good agent's time.

And 2006 is fast running out of weeks.

Chapter 50.2: Ouch

What a beautiful autumn weekend! Perhaps I deserve what I got, but after jogging five miles Saturday morning, I spent much of that afternoon chopping away at some of the large branches that fell during the recent windstorms. (There's something oddly satisfying about whacking the hell out of something with a hand ax!) Today, I followed that bit of exercise up with a full day of raking leaves. I didn't realize how much a few trees can dump onto a small yard. My whole body aches. I'm almost looking forward to the work week to rest up.

Chapter 50.1: Next...

At least the junior senator from Massachusetts has apologized for his stupid comment. Now, if the Democrats are able to take control of the senate, let's see if John Kerry has any significant committee chairmanships come his way. I just don't see that happening, because he is responsible for the October surprise this year -- almost two years to the date of his failed presidential candidacy. Perhaps it's close to time for Kerry to put his name into the hat for the open president's job at Harvard.

Chapter 50: Taking One for the Team?

I've not yet read any articles about it, but apparently Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) commented that our soldiers are "stuck in Iraq" as a result of President Bush's policies. I've noticed that he's taking a lot of heat for it, but at my first blush, I wonder if he's essentially returning the nation's focus to the president, where Republicans are particularly vulnerable right now, in order to deflect anything away from the senate and house races that might hurt Democrats. Perhaps it's only a way for Kerry to keep in the public eye during an election in which he's not running for anything. Either way, short of an outrageous and almost instantaneously proven allegation, my mind is already made up on my local elections.

Chapter 49.95: Wrong Again

Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals, the World Champions of Major League Baseball. Not really what I expected, obviously.

I'll say this, they certainly turned things on at the right time, but that assumes such a thing is possible, and I don't believe that. Baseball skills are not something one "turns on" at that level, and I don't believe the Tigers had turned theirs off. The Cardinals beat the Tigers. It's as simple and as complicated as that. I have enormous respect for what Jim Leyland has done with his teams throughout his managerial career. But I don't think for a second that he or his coaches have trained Joel Zumaya to go to third on a grounder back to the pitcher with men on first and second. What the hell was he thinking? You don't see that play in Rookie ball. I don't think you see it in high school varsity. The play in that circumstance is to second base.

The Tigers players, for whatever reason, lost their baseball smarts. I didn't think it could continue, but I suppose once THAT momentum has begun, it's hard to stop. Until the team loses. How much you want to bet that after reminding their pitchers to head toward first on a grounder to the right side, they go over first and second with less than two outs.

Chapter 49.9: Not Your Grandfather's World Series

As a bit of a baseball historian, I appreciate that this is not the first time the Tigers and Cardinals have met in the World Series. In 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, Mickey Lolich won three games -- the last to do so in three starts (Randy Johnson relieved in game 7 of 2001) -- and if he hadn't, Bob Gibson probably would have. That was the final year before divisional playoffs. It was a watershed year in baseball history. Some even mark it as the end of an era.

Of course, that doesn't mean squat right now, as Major League Baseball relishes its mega-millions of ticket sales amid paltry television interest in the actual Fall Classic. Many accuse baseball of selling its soul to corporate interests -- indeed, it seems much of America has done so: politicians, sports, arts & culture. But I think that once we get to game six of this series, we will start to recognize that history is now. Kenny Rogers' tarry palm will be a footnote, much like Roger Clemens' inability to throw a bat barrel as well as he pitches a split-fingered fastball. This Series, which I expected Detroit to run away with, will go the full seven. Though I'm an NL fan rooting for the Tigers, I believe the Cardinals will squeak past them in the final game.

Chapter 49.8: World Serious

I remain hopeful about my Mets. Yes, Oliver Perez is not who I would have envisioned as the team's October savior, but that's what we need him to be today. Well, that's overstating it. We need him to be better than Anthony Reyes and we need the hitters to mollywhop the Cardinals pitchers. ... emphasize pitchers, plural.

Darren Oliver did yeoman's work last night in keeping the rest of the pen rested, but in order for the Mets to have a chance, Perez needs to pitch at least 5, preferably 6 innings today. If it's 7-6 Mets after five, I'd be ok with that if Perez hasn't caused the pen to be overworked.

As for the American League, those Tigers are going to be tough to beat, Mets or Cardinals. Whichever NL team makes it to the World Series, I have to give the cats the advantage. They've got the pitching, they've got offensive power, and their manager is going to have them prepared for whatever confronts them. My initial prediction, subject to revision: World Series Champion Tigers, winning the series four games to one.

Chapter 49.7: Just a Thought

If the Republicans hadn't been hammering the anti-gay message as stringently the past six years or more, would the Mark Foley scandal have been as damaging to them? As the Republicans have been saying since the sexually explicit messages were exposed, a Democratic representative in the 1980s had been accused of at least once having an allegedly inappropriate relationship with a page and didn't pay a price as steep as Foley (and, likely, the GOP). But gays weren't as hot a political potato back then. These days, when same-sex unions are a campaign issue, anything that has any veneer of covert homosexual connotations among politicians apparently is as much a career killer as talking about changing Social Security used to be.

Chapter 49.5: Second Round

I didn't do too well in my predictions; my only correct one was the Mets. But I'm pleased. Obviously, my Mets are my first choice for winning the World Series. And I think they have a better shot against the Cardinals' pitching than the Padres' bullpen. But if their pen had been better, they might still be playing. So throw that out the window. The Mets still have problems ahead because their pitching is as beat up as the Cards' is. But it's likely they'll only face Chris Carpenter once as a starter (though game 7 isn't impossible).

My predictions: Mets 4-2

The ALCS is harder to predict. I didn't expect the A's to respond as well as they did, nor did I expect them to shut down the Twins hitters so effectively. I've not looked at how the Tigers pitchers fared against Oakland during the season, but this has the makings of a great series. Tigers 4-3.

Chapter 49.35: Remember the Maine

Well, I'm not batting too well so far. Santana lost at home for the first time this season. The Padres were beat. The Tigers couldn't do enough, but that's not really a surprise.

Now my Mets are hamstrung. Everything depends on El Duque's calf muscle MRI now. Expecting the worst, I assume he won't be able to pitch during this series, and I think they should retain either lefty Dave Williams or rookie Brian Bannister as the potential fourth starter/long man. I'm also expecting to see John Maine get the start today. I vaguely recall Bob Walk starting game one of the 1980 NLCS for the Phillies, so it's not unprecedented to have a rookie in such a pressure-packed role, and Maine has been solid.

While I'd prefer to have the proven El Duque, I'm hopeful Mr. Maine will give us a performance that Mets fans will look back on fondly for many years.

Chapter 49.3: Second Season

Ok, some quick predictions because I don't have much time:

Mets vs. Dodgers: Mets win series 3-1.
Padres vs. Cardinals: Padres win 3-0.

Twins vs. A's: Twins win 3-0.
Yankees vs. Tigers: Yankees win 3-1.

I think the Mets bullpen will be the star of the early round and probably of the first two rounds. The Dodgers have some fire power and experienced pitching, but I expect to see the Mets bats come alive, as they did against the lowly Nationals. The Dodgers are better than Frank Robinson's team was, but I still think the Mets have what it takes. Look for Guillermo Mota to star.

The Cardinals have been so bad lately, they might lose three straight to the Royals right now. Jake Peavy should take game one against Chris Carpenter, and from there the Cards have virtually nothing to scare a solid, if not spectacular San Diego squad.

In the AL, the A's only shot is to defeat Johan Santana, and he hasn't lost at the Metrodome since he was in diapers. Frank Thomas will hit a couple homers, perhaps, but Moneyball once again won't go too far.

The Tigers pitchers are all good, and if this series were being played in June, I'd take them. But the Tigers staff, except for Kenny Rogers, are basically young kids who've thrown too many innings this year. And no one is afraid of Rogers. And the Tigers don't hit sinker ballers well. Wang will overcome any jitters and set the tone for the rest of that series.

Chapter 49.1: Running Fool

I can claim to be a runner again. Last weekend, I ran in the Cow Harbor 10k in Northport, overlooking Long Island Sound. It's a tough route, with a good-sized hill between miles one and two. Unlike the person who won the race, I wasn't looking to set any records. I was able to finish in under an hour, which was my personal goal; I averaged a 9:34 mile. Not great, but given the course and my current level of training, I'll take it.

The people of Northport were great, doling out water at their own makeshift stations and offering their misting hoses on the side of the road. There was even a family of people dressed up as cows, which was amusing after 4 miles. I don't know if I'll do this race again next year or not (I'm leaning toward yes, especially if there's still a beer truck at the end like there was this year!), but if nothing else, i'm adding racing to my 2007 resolutions.

Chapter 49: Finally!

The first of four steps has been completed: The Mets are the champions of the National League Eastern Division.

The Braves, who won 14 division titles from 1990 through last year (none awarded in 1994; they were behind the Expos when the strike killed the season), deserve to be recognized for being great champions for all those years -- including the ones in which they played in the NL West.

What's next? Too soon to say, but I think the Mets have a lot of flying in their future. The Wild Card will not likely come from the West (either the Dodgers or the Padres, though the Giants still have a shot); I don't expect the Reds to come back. And if the Phillies or even the Marlins went on a late-season tear, the Mets would still be flying, as they can't compete against their own division in the first round.

Bring on the challengers!

Lets go Mets!

Chapter 48.9: Cartwheels in the Rain

Recently, someone spray painted a message at the top of the stairs coming out of the 14th Street PATH station: Cartwheel-Only Lane. Violators Will Be Prosecuted.
It's a rainy day, but for a moment I thought it might be fun.

Chapter 48.6: Primary School

I don't remember last year's election, but since it was an odd-year off election there was probably little to recall. This year, the stakes are a bit higher. But I live in an area where surprisingly little is happening in the primaries. The NY senatorial race between Hillary Clinton and a bag of elephant dung is hardly noteworthy; Eliot Spitzer seems to have won the gubernatorial in 2005 and held up on taking over the governor's mansion until Pataki declares he's running for vice president or another organ acts up on him -- whichever comes first.

Of course, the NY attorney general's race is a bit of a dog-fight, particularly between Andrew Cuomo and Mark Green. I don't have a dog in that hunt, but I respect other people's polar-opposite opinions.

In New Jersey, Menendez vs. Kean (who Republican friends of mine call "a bumbler") is less exciting than watching paint dry. But that's not a primary.

Which makes primary day here in the metropolitan area decidedly uninteresting. I was barely accosted at the train stations "reminding" me to vote in districts where I have no right to do so.

I'm sure there'll be more to hear while switching channels on the television over the next eight weeks or so, but for an important election with the emergence of real vitriol among the proletariat, I'm surprised at how dull the political theater is around here.

Chapter 48.4: Are You Ready for Some Zebras

Did the NFL referees really need to change their uniforms? What is the reason for the new look? They look more like zebras than they did before. Change can be good, but this was just a waste.

Og Ginats Og!

Chapter 48.25: Fun With a Lint Brush

It seemed like a good idea at the time...

Chapter 48.2: Spaz

For the past week or two, I've had discomfort in my left forearm. Yesterday it was pain. Initially, I thought I'd pinched a nerve when I was taking my laptop into work for a couple days. But it wasn't bothering me over the holiday weekend, and it's not as though I was drinking so much that I was oblivious to pain. But the one evening I did have a couple beers I also played guitar for the first extended time in months. Perhaps that's what is causing the spasms.

Yesterday I tried to avoid using the arm. It only felt worse. Icing it didn't help; it only made my arm wet. So today I'm trying to use the arm again, perhaps the constant use will keep it exercised and relieve whatever tension seems to be causing the discomfort. At least I can extend it further than I could yesterday.

Chapter 48.1: New Shoes

Perhaps it’s left over from when I was a kid in school, but I got new shoes yesterday and my whole perspective seems different now. No, they’re not making me taller than I really am, or anything like that. But my feet feel much more comfortable, and that seems to be enough today.

I’m not one for flashy shoes, and I don’t particularly care for shoes that look appropriate for working in an office. But the pair of Deer Stags I have on my thankful feet have that look. I’ll tolerate it because they’re so darn comfortable. They have extra padding inside, and after running 14.5 miles over the past week (not a record, but a lot for me), I’m grateful for the soothing squishiness of this pair of shoes.

Also new today is my first hire. I’ve got a new writer starting for me, a recent graduate of the Columbia University journalism program. His name is Mark Allwood, and I’m expecting great things from him. He doesn’t exactly have to put his shoe leather to the ground in this electronic information age, but he’ll have things to do. Good luck, Mark.

Chapter 48: So Long, Pluto

A sad farewell to Pluto, which has been demoted in the planetary realm, relegated to Large-but-Not-Too-Significant-Rock-in-Space.

Furthermore, the mnemonic device for children to remember the order of the planets has been revised to My Very Educated Mother Just Served Us Nachos.

Chapter 47.9: Math Yoda

I'm currently reading a book by John Allen Paulos called Innumeracy. It's brilliant. I didn't realize how much I've been looking for an approachable book on mathematics -- approachable not only by those who have no clue about both the importance and the beauty of math, but also those who, like me, consider themselves "numerate." I will go into more detail when I finish the book and add a post on my other blog, The Elephant's Bookshelf, but I think I may be able to satisfy one of my personal life goals of returning to teaching by the age of 40 while also evolving as a writer and editor. Over the next year, I'm going to look into and, if feasible (which is an important question given how I think it should be done) develop a small math tutoring line of work for myself. I'd take on just a few students and help them to understand math the way it should be understood: beautiful, elegant, practical, important. I would hope to instruct students through music, literature, poetry, history, as well as through the techniques students already are aware of. Math should not frighten students. In fact, if they can grasp just a fraction of what I hope to teach, they'll be able to gain confidence in all their studies and become well-rounded students.

Chapter 47.8: And So It Begins

I've been slowly developing a theory. I don't have enough time to fully expound upon it here yet, but in a nutshell, I believe that by 2012, we will see the emergence of a significant third political party in the United States -- a new party evolving out of the moderates of the two major parties. Perhaps its torch bearer will be Joe Lieberman, whose loss in the Connecticut primary for his re-election bid for the U.S. Senate has led to him running as an independent. I believe he'll win, though not by much, perhaps not even by a majority, because there will be several Democrats who follow him and many more Republicans who support him because their candidate is incapable of showing a political pulse much less electability in this contentious off-year election cycle.

But that's not the whole theory. It has become public knowledge now that the new pension reform will enable same-sex couples to pass along wealth as an inheritance. Good for them, I say. While I have some misgivings about what marriage means in their context, I don't doubt same-sex couples love each other and should be allowed to show concern for their partner's future the same way I would with my wife.

So far, the religious right seems ok with this law, because it's a benefit their constituents like, but when someone inevitably turns this into quasi-marriage, the fissures will widen. This country is becoming so diametrically opposed politically that the vacuum in the middle will have to be filled, and it'll be the RINOs and DINOs who do it (R-D In Name Only). A lot still needs to fall into place for this chasm to become noticeable, but I think it's as inevitable as an earthquake in California.

Chapter 47.6: Can You Say Escalation?

Well, anybody expecting a significant number of troops to return from Iraq in time to rally voters in November must be sorely disappointed with the comments made by President Bush, who said he'll be ordering more troops to deal with the "terrible" sectarian violence. While I'm not particularly crazy about the war -- and not a fan of our president's policies in general -- I actually think this is a necessary move. Had the president truly downsized the American presence in Iraq, I think a civil war there would have followed. And that would have been worse for us -- and certainly worse for a region that is having enough problems already. I think President Bush should have listened more closely to Colin Powell a few years ago when he was telling him that more troops would be necessary.

Chapter 47.2: Diamond Syd

Sad news. Syd is dead. Syd Barrett, one of the founders of Pink Floyd, passed away last week. Though I can't say I listen to them much anymore, I've been a Floyd fan since I was a kid and have nostalgic memories of sitting on my front yard listening to Umma Gumma on my Walkman on a summer night, grooving with a Pict.

Of course, as a lover of elephants, I'm both pleased and horrified by the bouncy Effervescing Elephant tune -- horrified because the sage pachyderm dies at the end. And as I walked home yesterday, I hummed See Emily Play.

She's often inclined to borrow somebody's dreams till tomorrow.

Syd, you're in our dreams and prayers now. Borrow what you need.

Chapter 47: The Second Half

It's been an advenutrous year, and the second half will be more of the same. Actually, it may be more adventurous, but certainly not the same. I'm in the process hiring a new writer; my deputy editor has departed. And my wife and I are embarking on a pleasant adventure of our own -- well, I don't know how pleasant it'll be, but I'll get into that at some other time.

I've also started a new blog about the books I'm reading and have already read this year. I've started to write book reviews as a sideline within my job, and since I've been reading so much anyway, it seems like a good idea to do something with what I'm learning/experiencing. Frankly, I've been disappointed in myself because it's not enough just to read something, one must think about it. That's important, because books can -- and should -- change your life. So, instead of just marking another notch in my bedroom reading list (well...on the train, mostly), I've begun to write about what I'm reading. Ok, I should probably edit what I've just done, but as Anne Lamott says, you're going to write shitty first drafts. The problem with a blog is that most people publish their crap, as I'm doing now.

In looking at my personal goals for the year, I've seen a lot of areas where I can improve. I won't go into too much detail about them here, but let's just say that I've changed a deadline (or two) on the editing of my first novel. I'm still committed to getting a draft ready for an agent this year. And, I will start the second book. This time, however, it might not be a novel. There are some things I need to work out. If I follow through out it, it'll be a baseball book.

Of course, another adventure is what's going on at Shea Stadium and throughout the National League, where my Mets are dominating. Unfortunately, the only game I've seen in person was the one-hitter the Yankees tossed against them on June 30. With the All-Star game happening on Tuesday, I have a few days to rest and plan when I might be able to catch a game at the home of the soon to be NL East Champion Mets. Ok, I don't want to get cocky yet; they've not won anything yet. But they're looking good -- the fourth and fifth starters notwithstanding.

On to the second half.

Chapter 46.64: Signs of the Time

While watching Mets games on television this year, I’ve noticed the cameras focus occasionally on a guy who holds up signs that comment on the team or a play. This guy is obviously a long-time Mets fan, because he must harken back to the days of the Sign Man, who attended games through the Joan Payson era.

Recently, the New York Times ran a story about the Sign Man, along with some explanation of how his eighteen-year tenure in the stands came to an end after the 1981 season. Though Sign Man apparently returned in 2002 (I think I remember seeing it during the game, but I could be mistaken), there’s been little about him otherwise. The article ends too abruptly, but I can’t help but wonder if there might be a way for the Mets to get the old Sign Man to meet the new one. And if this team can get back to the World Series, it would be wonderful to see that melding of old and new generations as Mets fans hope to see their team crowned the World Champs once again.

Chapter 46.25: The Word

I looked up "perseveration" on Dictionary.com. I was amused that the definition was repeated several times.

Chapter 46.2: Thank God

On the PATH train this morning, I noticed something refreshing that I think bodes well for the reading public. I did not see a single copy of The DaVinci Code. I think we’ve gotten through the worst of the hype, and not a moment too soon. The DVD will surely annoy us all by Christmas (and, seriously, what more appropriate Christmas present could there be?), but the summer should be relatively free of Grail Lore and Magdalene Mysteries.

Perhaps this sounds strange coming from a Sinclair, since, after all, we are the true descendents of Christ, but I’m just sick of it all. Yes, I read the book -– two or three years ago -– which I found intriguing but ultimately disappointing. A book with art at its heart was paint-by-numbers artless. I don’t know what the French word for “sugar candy” is, but it would describe it well. The story ran through me like grass goes through a goose. And I saw the movie. It adhered pretty closely to the book.

But I said intriguing, and I mean it. For me, the idea of a married Jesus doesn’t seem too outlandish. Since my early days in Catholic school, I’ve been taught that God loved us so much that He sent His son to earth to be one of us, i.e. human. When in Rome …

To me, the thing that people clung to in the book was the idea that Jesus was more human that our religion teachers, priests and ministers, and our friends who are Jewish have ever let on. He loved women enough to trust them to run things and be an important part of his life. Ultimately, I think that if we look closely enough we’d start to understand that the Holy Grail isn’t necessarily the bloodline passed through one woman, but the bloodline of humanity, of which women are an important, integral part.

Chapter 46: Softball Season's Closing Days

This has been a different softball season for me. I think my arm is showing its age. For the first time, my shoulder hurts after I play. I warm up properly, though I probably don't cool down the right way. I've never applied ice to my shoulder, but those days may be changing. During the games, my arm feels fine, and I can throw with accuracy whenever I have a play to make. The arm even has some of its old zip still in evidence.

Now that my squad softball season is essentially complete, and the office team has only a few games left, my arm won't be stressed as much. I probably need more throwing rather than less. It sucks getting old.

Chapter 45.85: Quibbles and Bits

Ok, I enjoyed the final episode of The West Wing, though much of it was predictable. Who really thought President Barlet wouldn't pardon Toby? At least it wasn't dragged out too long. The only thing about that story line that surprised me was that Toby didn't appear in the episode. How'd you like to star on an award-winning show for seven years and fall on the cutting room floor in its finale?

I'm glad we didn't have to listen to yet another Matt Santos speech, though they're often well written. Also, I was pleased to see President Bartlet walk through the bullpen and thank the recurring characters, such as Carol, the assistant press secretary, and Ed & Larry (who serve as congressional liaisons).

I wasn't surprised to see that they did not get Glenn Close to reprise her role as the Chief Justice of the United States to swear in President Santos, but to their credit, they cast a blonde-haired woman.

I was left wondering if they couldn't have come up with something more for Sam Seaborn to do, or at least have him greet President Bartlet -- the man who once predicted Sam would run for the president someday. I don't know if Rob Lowe still feels miffed that the show didn't feature him enough (which is reportedly why he decided to return to television for such stellar shows as The Lyon's Den and Dr. Vegas), but one scene should have been possible.

And what ever became of Zoey and Charlie? One day Charlie's sneaking out of her White House residence bedroom, then we're left unsure whether Zoey has flown back to New Hampshire. And now Charlie's going to Georgetown Law School? Totally believable, but they had a pretty big story arc that went unresolved. Did I miss something?

Maybe in a couple years there'll be a return to the West Wing, but I suspect that shark has been jumped.

Chapter 45.8: Wing and a Prayer

Tonight, I’ll be watching the final new episode of The West Wing. I’ve enjoyed the past seven years’ episodes. The characters have grown on me, and while there has been some sluggishness over the past couple of years, this season has rejuvenated interest by adding interesting characters and showing aspects of the changing of a politician into a president.

These are things we didn’t see in the original year, though the flashbacks to the first Bartlet presidential campaign have been interesting. I’m sorry the new administration won’t be allowed to develop in television land, but we’ll have to deal with it. Recently, it was "disclosed" that the plan had been for Alan Alda’s Arnold Vinnick to win the presidency (Jimmy Smits disagrees), but the unexpected death of John Spencer changed things. I’m intrigued by the idea of the losing candidate in the race becoming the Secretary of State; I doubt it could happen in our current political world, but it’s food for thought.

I think it’s a nice touch to show the original pilot before the final episode -- a bookend quality that I find appealing. Watch and enjoy.

Chapter 44.7: Good Riddance

I'm thankful April has passed. Perhaps no one else cares, but the month was just too darn busy. Every weekend I had things I had to do, and May will probably be similar, or possibly worse. I need a vacation -- at least a few days off.

I think it's time to sip scotch.

Chapter 44.5: Not Quite as Old…

I played softball last night –- my first game ever on Ward’s Island –- and we won, 8-7. From my post at third base I could watch tug boats direct larger ships down the river. I’ve heard there’s usually a smell off the water, but last night was quite nice.

The field itself was a work in progress –- literally. Construction in right field and an outfield that was being reseeded and composed of loose soil gave the outfielders fits, as did a background of speckled sunlight.

For myself, I hit a double in my first at bat and scored our first run. In my final at bat, in the bottom of the sixth, I drove in a run, bringing us within one; I later scored the tying run. Yet, it’s the second at bat, where I flied out with runners on first and third, that I’m still thinking about. In other leagues, I’m used to softballs that fly off the bat, but these died soon after they were hit. While I’ve played with restricted flight softballs, these seemed to have no flight. It was the most solid hit I had during the game, yet it was just a pop out.

My back is a little sore this morning, but I can tolerate that, knowing I’m still able to play and help my team win.

Chapter 44.2: The Manager

Today's the anniversary of the death of Ned Hanlon, best known as the manager of the original Baltimore Orioles, which are widely touted as changing the game of baseball. They had players like John McGraw, Joe Kelley, and Big Dan Brouthers -- all Hall of Famers. While Hanlon has been credited (for the most part, erroneously) with inventing tactics like the hit and run, sacrifice bunt, and the Baltimore chop, perhaps his most lasting legacy was his influence on generations of managers.

Certainly, the most significant was McGraw, whose career victories are second only to another Hanlon player, Connie Mack. Among McGraw's managerial lineage are managers like Roger Bresnahan and Casey Stengel. Stengel's influence can be traced to today in people like Joe Torre and even Tony LaRussa.

While Connie Mack's lineage has essentially died out, through McGraw's descendents Hanlon survives, stronger than ever, considering how people like Willie Randolph and Joe Girardi have left Torre's staff and become managers (we won't count Lee Mazzilli for now). When you question your favorite team's managerial moves, take a half second to think about Ned Hanlon.

Chapter 44: My Predictions for the 2006 Season

The season’s a week old now, but I think there’s still time to make predictions that aren’t too much influenced by what has already occurred. I’ll offer this caveat: As a Met fan, I pay more attention to the NL East, so my predictions of the other divisions could be missing key ingredients. Don’t make any bets based on what I say. Ok, I’ll get right into it, division by division:

NL East: Everyone else is picking the Braves to repeat, and it’s hard to argue with the past 15 years of success (heck, they probably would have taken the division in ’94, even though the Expos were in the lead when the strike occurred). But I’m a bit concerned about their pitching. They don’t have Leo Mazzone to keep them in sync anymore, as he’s joined his buddy Sam Perlozzo in Baltimore. I don’t know what to make of Roger McDowell as a pitching coach. They still have hitting, and their pitchers are quite capable. But I think this year the Mets will finally top the Braves, to take their first division title since 1988.

The Mets have the hitting and they have the pitching, especially in the bullpen. I love the acquisition of Carlos Delgado. He’s still got a quick bat and is a steady run producer. It’s not just home runs for that guy. And David Wright is a superstar in waiting. Anderson Hernandez has got to hit better than he did last year and has at the start of the 2006 season, but he’s still a better option in the field than Kaz Matsui. If the Mets lineup can withstand another Rey Ordonez type of hitter, then they may be ok. The outfield seems fine with a more relaxed Carlos Beltran, and Cliff Floyd in his walk year. I think Aaron Heilman deserved to be a starter, based on his showing in spring training, and I’m not convinced he won’t eventually –- even this year -– become one, but Brian Bannister has some ability. He was wild in his first major league start, but let’s see how he’s throwing in May.

The Phillies also could surprise people. They have some solid pitching, led by Jon Lieber, and first baseman Ryan Howard is to the Phillies’ future what David Wright is for the Mets. They might find themselves anchoring the NL all-star infield for the next dozen years (although Albert Pujols may have something to say about that). All that said, I think they’ll wind up with a solid third-place showing, somewhere above .500. I’d say they’ll have about 87-90 wins.

The Nationals got worse, and though they’ll probably top the gutted fish from Florida, we may yet be surprised at what Joe Girardi puts together in Miami. The Marlins have some proven players in Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Despite their youth (starting the season with six rookies in the lineup) I think they match up well against the Nationals, with whom they’ll compete 19 times. I predict the Nationals will finish with about 78 wins, topping the Marlins by about three or four games, but it could go either way.

NL Central: This is going to be the year of the Cardinals. Albert Pujols will take the baseball world by storm, reaching heights that only a pumped up Barry Bonds might imagine. I think Pujols will inaugurate the new Busch stadium with another MVP season and perhaps a couple other individual titles. Dare I say it, he could become the first triple-crown winner in the major leagues since Carl Yastrzemski (Quick quiz: who was the last player to win the Triple Crown before Yaz? Another quick quiz: who was the last National Leaguer to win the Triple Crown? Send me your answers at mattsinclair@myway.com). Anyway, the Astros are another year older and likely one rocket down in the rotation. But having consecutive 20-game-winner Roy Oswalt at the top of the rotation doesn’t hurt. I don’t expect him to have any trouble moving into the ace slot now that Roger Clemens has made good on his second attempt at retirement –- though the jury is still out on how long it’ll last. And Andy Pettitte remains a strong starter, though he’s had a lot of innings in that arm and elbow. I believe his days as a front-line starter are fast on the decline. Time to get crafty, Lurch.

Too often, The Astros hitting was light last year (for example, during the World Series), and I’m not sure how much more they’ve added. But they’re the defending NL champs, so they must be respected. I’d love to see the Cubbies take the division and sweep their way into the World Series and complete the hat-trick of long-suffering World Series winners. Alas, I don’t think it’s going to happen. They may even have difficulty topping their neighbors to the north. The Milwaukee Brewers have quietly put together some strong young arms and bats and stand poised to surprise people. I realize they’ve started out well this year and are catching people’s attention, but the path was blazed last year in particular. Their manager Ned Yost strikes me as a capable game tactician, though I’ve not actually watched many of his Brew Crew’s games. But he’s a former catcher; he knows what he’s doing. As for the Reds and Pirates, build your farm systems. You’re going nowhere, but your ballparks look nice.

NL West: This has to be the most difficult division to predict. The Giants are ancient and have mediocre or un-established pitchers, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are woeful. The Padres have quality, but I simply don’t see them taking it either. The Dodgers, by default, may end up with the division. I don’t like the makeup of any of these teams. I think it’ll be a fun division to watch in that the race will be close. But I’m predicting Dodgers topping the Padres by about two games with the Giants close behind them. This race will go to the end of September, but that’s almost as deep as any NL West teams will play.

NL playoff predictions: Mets defeat Dodgers; Cardinals defeat Braves. Cardinals avenge their 2000 loss to the Mets in the NLCS and move on to the World Series.

AL East: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Once again, the Yankees will eke out the division, their aging pitching not able to stake out a lead in April or May. I’m predicting an off year for the inimitable Mariano Rivera: only 37 saves and an ERA above 2.50. The guy’s a Hall of Famer -– probably the first First-Ballot reliever ever inducted -– but not even he can withstand the number of innings he’ll be needed to pitch. He’s going to be exhausted by October and may even blow a major playoff game, which is quite unlike him. The Red Sox still have some fire power, and a week ago I might have predicted them to come in first, but they just don’t seem to have the same fire in their guts. I’d love to see them top the Yankees and I hope I’m wrong about them, but they may be hard-pressed to best the Blue Jays, who I see as the wild card club from the American League.

Toronto has made several great moves, and even picking up BJ Ryan will turn out to be a wonderful acquisition, though I don’t see him as a clutch reliever yet. (Heck, even Armando Benitez helped his team to the World Series, but he’s just a guy with a fastball.) The D-Rays have put together some excellent young players who no one’s heard of. Look for them to make the race interesting. They won’t finish the season at over .500, but they’ll prove to themselves and the twelve people who root for them that they’re a team on the rise. Baltimore? Is there still a team in Baltimore? Sam Perlozzo is going to wonder what he’s done to his buddy Leo Mazzone, bringing him to the worst club in the American League east of Kansas City. Take out Miguel Tejada and this team would struggle at Triple-A. They can’t catch the ball, their hitters are over-matched most of the time, and they have no pitching. For now. The best move they made in the off-season was picking up Mazzone, and he’ll weed out the chaff in that pitching staff. I think he’ll be able to help make a star out of Kris Benson, but this year is going to be difficult in bird-town.

AL Central: This could be the most interesting division in baseball. The World Champion White Sox are stronger than last year. Their pitching staff is extremely solid. They have a strong lineup, especially since Paul Konerko returned to keep people protected. I think they’ll be able to win the division again. The Cleveland Indians should get a half-share of Chicago’s World Series winnings, because they helped the White Sox play like a playoff team at the end of last season, when the Injuns almost snuck in a playoff appearance. They may see a drop-off this year, but the Indians should still be a playoff contender and might even sneak into the wild card berth.

I like the Tigers to surprise people and top .500 with new manager Jimmy Leyland showing the team how to win. They have holes, but Leyland has always been a good teacher, and he’s got Ivan Rodriguez to keep that young staff focused. Say what you will about how he got Pudgy, but the man has consistently been a great catcher. He calls a good game, he settles his pitchers as well as anyone in the game, and his arm is still among the best behind the plate. Even if he’s exposed as having been a steroid user (which I don't know to be the case, I just suspect it), he might be able to make the Hall of Fame, whereas people like Rafael Palmeiro will have a tough time gaining entry. The Twins still have a capable team, and they could even win the division. With Johann Santana at the top of their rotation, the Twins have the right stuff in their pitching staff. While the Twins have strong fundamentals, I just don’t think they have the offensive fire-power to top the White Sox this year. I think that outside of the White Sox taking the division somewhat handily, the middle three teams are going to bunch up together, with the Royals wallowing in their now traditional bottom spot.

AL West: A lot of folks are predicting the A’s will win the west, and some have even said they’ll go to the World Series. I don’t think it’ll happen. The A’s have a solid club, but I think we’ll be seeing Barry Zito traded to a contender by mid-July. That’s because the A’s will be looking up at the Angels once again. The Angels and the A’s are the only teams that really matter in this division; while Texas has some great hitters, they’re still not capable of making a dent on the two top teams with the pitching staff they have. And the Mariners suck.

AL prediction: White Sox defeat Yankees. Angels defeat Blue Jays. White Sox repeat as AL Champs.

World Series prediction: White Sox top the take their second consecutive championship, again topping an NL Central club. Four games to two.

Chapter 43.5: Math Fun

I’m missing a part of my brain. Those who know me would say I’ve not been all there for a long time, but I don’t mean it in that way. What I mean is I used to be able to do math problems; I originally majored in the subject in college. These days, I can’t recognize a simple trigonometry problem for what it is.

I recently wrote a book review -- my first. It was on managing and leadership in nonprofits. When I was a Math/English double major in college, the idea of comprehending business management, much less writing somewhat authoritatively on the subject would never have crossed my mind. I wanted to write books that have some mathematic or scientific authenticity to them and which still were compelling stories. I still do. In fact, my second novel will be about a group whose paterfamilias was a geologist as is one of his daughters, the main character. Yet, at its heart, it’s a love story. Another book will play with relativistic science; that too is driven by the characters rather than the science. Personally, I think that’s the only way it could succeed.

But back to my point: I miss math and science. Today, while pulling squad duty, one of our recent high school graduates (now in the second semester of his freshman year) returned from MIT. I asked him what classes he was taking. Among them was about relativistic physics. He mentioned Einstein’s twin paradox, which I’d been reminded of earlier in the day. The paradox is about a pair of twins, one who leaves earth to travel through space at speeds approaching the speed of light, and when he returns, he’s younger than his brother. An article from NASA pointed out a flaw in this hypothesis: the telomeres will have been so damaged by the radiation in space that his body will actually have aged more than his brother who never left the planet.

This kid started pointing out all sorts of other flaws in the hypotheses of time travel, and eventually showed me some elegant little equations that show the impossibilities of traveling at light speed (at least from an algebraic perspective). I asked him for some books for people like me: used to have abilities that have atrophied and wishes to exercise them back into a semblance of their old shape. I’m a mathlete who is trying to get back into shape to at least do simple geometry.

Because of the book review, I will receive a $20 gift card from Barnes & Noble. I think it’s time to read a good science book. Any suggestions?

Chapter 43.4: Your Cheating Heart

I don’t think any true baseball fan is surprised at the accusations in Sports Illustrated about Barry Bonds’ steroid use. Anyone who has watched him play since his days with the Pirates, when he was a thin whip of a batter with a fantastically quick bat. By the time 1998 came around and Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa passed Babe Ruth and then Roger Maris’s single-season home run totals, Bonds was already a sure-fire Hall of Famer. No one else who’d won as many Most Valuable Player awards as he had at that point had not been elected to induction in Cooperstown.

I liked this column in the San Jose Mercury News, which amusingly describes another incident that’s been in the press recently: a conversation that reportedly occurred between Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. Basically, the tale goes, Bonds said he told Griffey he keeps having great years but no one respected what he’d accomplished, but the fans and media loved people like McGwire and Sosa, so Bonds decided if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Griffey said he has no recollection about the conversation. As the sons of well regarded ball players, they’ve been around the game all their lives. They know there are some things that aren’t supposed to be said to people outside the game, and that includes reporters.

It seems to me that someone’s trying to besmirch Griffey: guilt by association with Bonds. That’s just wrong. This is a man who’s kept consistent throughout his career, who’s won an MVP, who’s hit more than 500 home runs, and was once regarded as the best player in the game. Not only will he be inducted into the Hall of Fame five years after he eventually retires, but he’s already been named as one of the All-Century team. And as he’s gotten older, his body has deteriorated like it’s supposed to. He doesn’t hit 45-50 homers like he did during his prime. He never got pudgy. I would be amazed if he were a steroid user.

I think Griffey’s accomplishments will eventually be considered among the most impressive of this current era. While other players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Canseco, Rafael Palmeiro have all either been accused of using steroids or have admitted to it, Griffey has passed through without such accusations. Some fans may not like his sometimes aloof demeanor, but no true baseball fan can deny that Ken Griffey Jr. is a great baseball player. We need to get this season started so Griffey can get back to doing what he’s always done and these spurious, stories can fall by the wayside. Go ahead and investigate Bonds, whose surly attitude and jealousy may have finally caught up with him. He has ruined his own reputation. He’ll likely pass Babe Ruth’s career home run total by May, but who will really believe that he deserves to be considered like Ruth or Hank Aaron? It’s his own damn fault.

Chapter 43.2: Subtle West Wing Moment

In late January, there was an episode of The West Wing in which a nuclear power plant in California had a problem that required radioactive steam to be released. Thinking of it a month later, the details are fuzzy, but one thing I had made a note of was that during a shot of Republican presidential candidate Arnold Vinnick, who hails from California, there was a placard behind him related to his campaign. Though I can’t find an example on The West Wing -- not even in the candidate pages, the placard looked surprisingly like what you see at the Clinton Foundation’s site -- the starry circle in the upper left corner of the page. For that matter, it looks a little like the flag of the European Union.

The circle of stars is simple enough, and I could be mis-remembering the Vinnick logo, but if nothing else, I chuckled at the possibility that the producers of the show were subtly pointing to a Democratic president with their Republican candidate.

For what it’s worth, I don’t care which candidate wins in the show. When John Spencer died unexpectedly, it meant the end of one of my favorite characters, Leo McGarry. Then, when the producers announced this would be the final season, it made the victorious candidate almost a moot point. Sure, there are questions of what it would mean to the “Bartlet legacy,” but it’s just a TV show. I’m not going to get wistful over something like that. I’m going to enjoy the rest of the series (which should never have been moved to Sundays, but that’s a whole other argument I don’t care to go into), and then I’ll move on to something else. As for other quality television, there’s always Medium.

Chapter 43: Flurries of Baseball News

I sit typing while a few stray flakes of snow float outside my window. The cat is napping, satisfied that it’s too damn cold to go out on the porch today. And my thoughts turn to baseball.

The Mets are talking playoffs. Postseason dreams for a club that hasn’t sniffed the second week of October since the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the final weeks of 2001 into the month. They have some strengths, and spring training is the time of year when all clubs boast of opportunities not yet lost and rookies not yet busted. Managers talk about how their team might surprise their competition. (Except for Pittsburgh, perhaps.) But the Mets co-exist in a division with the Atlanta Braves, who have won the past fourteen division championships (no one seems to count 1994, when the Expos ended the aborted season in first place). The Braves sound confident. Chipper Jones, who may start to feel old age creep up on him this season, said they expect to win the division.

I’m all for confidence, but that’s bordering on the type of arrogance normally associated with the Yankees and their fans. And if there’s one thing a Mets fan hates more than the Braves, it’s the Yankees. I think we have heard a gauntlet tossed onto the green grass of a spring training infield. Heat it up, boys. I’m ready for some baseball!

Chapter 42.99: One of the Good Guys

I recently noticed a piece in the Chicago Tribune about Jimmie Alford, a consultant to nonprofit organizations. I’ve known Jimmie for a decade. He’s a good man, and his firm -- to my knowledge -- is among the most ethical out there. And that means a lot to me.

A few years ago, Jimmie and I jogged several miles along the shoreline of the Puget Sound during the AFP conference. That conversation helped me in many ways; he helped me focus on my personal and professional goals, and he pushed me farther than I thought I could go. Literally, in the sense that we ran more than five miles when I was training on only two miles, and figuratively in that I envisioned several possible futures for myself.

Jimmie’s been stepping back from his daily work schedule these past few years, though I was proud to have him write for me in the magazine I was editing a year ago. I don’t see him completely retiring from the field he’s served for many decades, but he’s done much to help the U.S. nonprofit sector, both in placing strong executives in organizations and helping match donors with groups and causes. Good luck, Jimmie.

Chapter 42.9: Super Bowl Sunday

I can't believe how quickly the past month has flown by, and I've not touched this blog in way too long. Frankly, I don't have much to talk about at the moment, so no one has really missed much as far as my contributions to the world are concerned.

But to add my prediction on the big game, (Aaron Neville and Aretha Franklin are singing as I type), I'll preface by saying I don't care which team wins. I'm more of an NFC fan; the Giants have been preparing themselves for next year for a few weeks now. I've got friends in Pittsburgh, so perhaps I'm a bit partial to the Steelers. I think the Steelers and Seahawks match up pretty well, and the game should be tight.

My prediction: Steelers 24, Seahawks 21.

Chapter 42.6: Tragic Miscommunication and Rumor

My wife and I stayed up late last night – she, later than I – watching developments in West Virginia on the news of the trapped miners. We were amazed and pleased to hear the reports that twelve had been found alive. It truly sounded miraculous. I was most impressed with the woman whose uncle was believed to be the only one who’d perished. She was surprisingly calm and articulate given the situation, not distraught, and she seemed genuine in her happiness for her neighbors whose loved ones were reportedly safe.

As a reporter, I was a bit curious why there were no reports from officials at the scene. Everything seemed to be happy relatives, which makes for emotional television news, but is hardly authoritative. Rather than voice my questions at the television, I decided to go to bed. My wife stayed up, hoping to witness the promised march of all the survivors into that little church. She picked my book up off my chest, waking me somewhere around 2:30, and we went to sleep.

On the train this morning she called me with the awful news: all but one of the miners were dead; the lone survivor was in critical condition. The information that had been relayed from the command center had been tragically incorrect. Rumor had spread like wildfire, igniting every tender hope in that West Virginia community, and spreading through the television to the hearts of viewers. Now, my heart aches for those people whose emotions were so terribly torn asunder after hours – indeed, days – of agony. I can only imagine the pall that has fallen over that area.